Precious Metals – Alive Or Dead?

Precious Metals - Alive Or Dead

I see a lot of people have started absolutely hating Precious Metals and Miners in recent weeks, and that is understandable.  Gold, Silver, and the Miners have taken a dive, especially since the recent Election results in the U.S.  They cannot seem to catch a bid, and each reversal just doesn't seem to stick, even though Oil and Metals like Steel, Aluminum, and Copper rocketed higher. 

We have to ask: Is the Bull dead or Alive in this sector?

 

Here at Chartfreak, we have been discussing this extensively throughout the past several weeks.  I'd like to open up a portion of the weekend report from Dec 4th, along with a few charts from earlier reports, to show how we have been monitoring these areas.  Enjoy.

As of Nov 18th,  GDX was already at an important Fib retracement of 61.8%, so we looked for the sell off to stop in this area.

  gdx-11-18 Read More

RECALCULATING ROUTE

Have you ever been driving along using your GPS and you decide that maybe you're going to take a short cut to your destination?  The GPS detects that you have left the designated course and immediately needs to compensate by announcing, "Recalculating Route!".  Well last week sectors of the markets took sharp detours right after the elections. Using over 50 charts, this weekend report will discuss the road we find ourselves on now.

 

SPX - Nov 1st , Expecting a trade-able  ICL, maybe in the 2070 area.

 

spx-10-31

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GOLD AND THE USD

CAN GOLD CONTINUE TO RISE, SINCE THE USD IS MOVING HIGHER TOO?

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That question and other ones similar to it keep coming up lately and understandably so.  Gold usually drops when the USD rises, but lately we do see both rising at the same time. I called a low in Gold recently and have been trading in the Precious Metals sector, but some are having a hard time believing it when they see the USD rising too.  Allow me to share my thoughts on this. The following 4 charts are from the weekend report, where I tried to help my readers see the answer that question.

GOLD AND THE USD

 

CHART #1 -The USD has slowly been approaching the Highs of 2015. The chart does look quite bullish, but it does also show prior lows being taken out and lower highs so far.

  usd10-21w

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Are You Shopping For Your Favorite Miners?

Sometimes it is not enough to go shopping when things are on sale, we all like to get the rock bottom prices. In the Precious Metals sector we caught the lows in Mid January and at the end of May, when they experienced a serious sell off.  Looking for certain signs of a bottom, we started to see it as it was approaching. As you probably know, the Precious Metals sector has again been caught up in a deep sell off.  Here at Chartfreak we’ve been expecting this, as seen in my public posts as well as my premium posts.  I had been mentioning as far back as July and August that we should be looking for a deep correction and then a trade-worthy bottom, likely at the end of September or October.  Will this sell off continue, or are we near the bottom? Lets look at some of the charts from my weekend report and see what we’ve been looking at!  We’ll skip right to the Precious Metals section.

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 GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

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The COT levels are back where they were in May at that Deep trade-able low (ICL), and GOLD is now late in the ‘daily timing’ for a cycle low, so this starts to look good. 

cot-11-14

 

GOLD – Golds did not have a proper swing low in place as of Friday, but we do see signs of bottoming.  Daily cycles do not extend much further than 25 -30 days, and we see that a low formed on day 25 so far.  That means that Friday was either Day 30 of this sell off daily cycle or day 5 of a new daily cycle and lows could be in place at $1243.20. Follow through higher above 1267.60 places a swing low in place.

gold-10-14

SILVER – Silver has a proper swing low, but it is not really ‘confirmed’ yet. I want to see a break above the 10sma as follow through.

silver-10-14

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NEAR OR AT THE LOWS? TIME TO DIG DEEPER

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GDX Looking back to Oct 6th, I started to tell everyone that often GDX bottoms in a way that looks easy to buy in hindsight, but it is NOT.  Look at those May lows. I said that we could see the same type of bottom form around the 200sma, as we saw at the 50sma. It scares away buyers looking for support in that area…

gdx-10-6

And there you go, twins.  Easy to buy, right?  No.  🙂  On this chart I got 1 ‘buy’ signal that triggered Wednesay using an indicator that I developed over time (the lower section).

gdx-10-14

 

GDX OCT 12th – This system that I developed years ago triggered a ‘buy’ on Oct 12th ( see the lower section).  It is at times scary, because it often triggers before a strong move higher.  In the past it has been very accurate. Again, the progress since this Oct 12th chart is seen on the above chart in the lower section.

gdx-trigger

GDX – This points out that Day 27 was either the low and we saw Day 3 on Friday, or if we drop 1 more time, we extend this daily cycle to the limits.  That in mind, I believe that any drop would be a shake out and then rebound.

gdx-10-14-a

Please recall that back on Oct 6th , I said that $22.08 was a measured move that is possible too, but not necessary.  It also leads to a back test of that orange channel, but notice that we did back test that already in the May sell off. So another quick slam down and recovery is still possible, but that tag of that blue channel is usually enough in a bull market sell off. This sell off should be finishing up.

gdx-10-6-2

I used this chart in a report last week to show that the GDX:GOLD ratio was turning up.  I wrote in the middle of this chart that a cross of the 8sma is a buy for some technical traders, but I find it a bit risky and not a low risk buy when used all by itself. We did not have a cross over yet at that point.

gdx-gold

GDX:$GOLD UPDATE : We got that cross over.  If Gold drops or Miners rise faster than Gold, we get the cross over.  Monday we will look to see if this holds or gives way. 

gdx-gold-10-14

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EDIT:  This is Mondays chart, the cross over the blue line held and it looks like it back tested. This shows us that even though GOLD hadn’t places a proper swing low in place, Miners are leading.

gdx-gold-10-17

WEEKEND REPORT CONCLUSION: We are waiting for a confirmed swing low and a push higher.  Oil and NATGAS remain bullish,  but I sold my energy positions to focus on the Precious metals.  We are deep into the timing for a low in Gold, Silver, and Miners, and I think that this is where some nice gains will be made next.  I expect a run higher very soon, and I will cover set ups and entries in Miners when those lows are confirmed.

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Are you ready to go shopping in the precious metals sector? Back in May 2016 at the lows, we entered what I considered to be low risk bullish set ups in VGZ, MUX, and TRX and these ran up 100-250% in 2 months! Why not sign up at chartfreak and add this analyses to your own method of trading. If this run is anything like the run we saw out of the January lows or the May lows, 1 trade will more than pay for your monthly or quarterly membership. In Monday evenings report, I discussed a few Miners that had low risk set ups.

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Chart Freak Premium

Chart Freak members receive up to 5 premium reports per week covering a wide array of markets, as this public post illustrates.  Come and join the ChartFreak community as we trade the new Gold Bull Market and various trending sectors.

join-now

~ALEX

 

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SIDENOTE: BPGDM

 People have asked me, “Does the BPGDM have to drop further like in Aug 2015”? No, not if we are in a re-newed bull market.

In the summer 2015, Miners were TRASHED and the BPGDM was about as low as it gets, then some Miners started to recover before the GDX lows were really in place.  So when we were looking for the LOWS in GDX last year ( they actually came in mid January 2016)  BPGDM was rising, not falling. Some Miners were already being accumulated  BEFORE THE ICL.

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Look at the MAY 2016 ICL.  If someone says that the BPGDM has to drop lower now, before an ICL can be in place,  then why did it hold up so well at the May ICL?  We are already lower than the May ICL, isnt that enough? We are almost at the January 2015 ICL level  (but we do not have to go there).

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Currently, the BPGDM has dropped as much as it needs to to remove bullish sentiment. Many people are no longer interested in ‘taking a chance on Miners’.  THAT IS BULLISH.

bpgdm

GOLD & ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES

Our recent weeks of trading have had a lot of choppy sideways action, and this gets frustrating to both the longs and the shorts.  My premium reports discussed how that choppiness was ending in Oil, and we began looking at buy set ups forming in the energy markets. I wanted to share my thoughts on ENERGY & PRECIOUS METALS from the weekend report here with the public.  I Am expecting a sell off in Gold, Silver, and Miners, but it could be the next best buy of 2016. Lets take a look.

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Below is a partial of the weekend report.

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WTIC – Break out and follow through as expected. Please read the chart.

wtic-9-30-d

Please notice that when OIL bottomed in 2008-2009,  it also had a sideways choppy period for weeks like we just experienced and then it ran strongly.

wtic-2009-first

We had been looking at and discussing a variety of Energy stocks throughout 2016 since February like CWEI, RICE, WPX, AREX, SDRL, AXAS, MRO, CHK,  and many more. 

 

 

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GOLD , SILVER, and MINERS

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GOLD–  I am expecting the dip into an ICL. A great buying opportunity should be coming soon, but this drop may cause some Gold Bulls to sell and not re-enter. We will be ready to buy. See the chart.

gold-9-30-d

GOLD WKLY–  Read the chart please.

gold-wkly-9-30

 

SILVER –  Read the chart please.

silver-9-30

 

LETS LOOK AT MINERS

 

GDX– In Bull markets, Miners consolidations can lead to very profitable moves higher.

gdx-wkly-9-30-first

 

GDX – A back test of the 200MA  would be a drop into an ICL, IF it happened. This weekly chart is getting oversold, that is good news.

gdx-9-30-w-1

 

GDX  WKLY with a drop into an ICL , Elliot Wave style. please read the chart.

gdx-wkly-e-w

DO YOU RECALL IN A RECENT REPORT I was pointing out that this sideways action has happened before, and yes it is frustrating, but it always ends eventually.  Here I was pointing out a sideways chop in 2014 that had a final quick plunge into an ICL.  Unexpected to many that didn’t know cycle counts.

gdx-9-27

 

I wanted to zoom in on that Quick plunge into an ICL, since we are likely near one now.

  1. That break down was very scary to buy, it was just a 2 day plunge.

  2. I wrote in the Purple dates under the actual dates that this occurred. Those are our current cycle count, and please notice how that lines up  🙂

  3. In 2016, the Miners last ICL was the end of May, and look where that leads us this for that plunge.

gdx-9-27-choppy-timing

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Since the sideways chop and consolidations can be frustrating to many, causing them to want to sell and give up, I want to re-post this chart.

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This was an XAU consolidation in the Green circle.  Again, some are getting frustrated and tired of waiting in this current sideways action.  This was a chart that I posted a while ago, so you can ignore what I wrote on the chart then, and just focus on GREEN CIRCLE.  You see 3 months of just sideways chop &consolidation.  NO MONEY TO BE MADE TRADING THEN.  CHOP CHOP CHOP and if you kept jumping in and getting stopped out, it was frustrating. Now look at that run up after the 4 month chopping action labelled ‘the real rocket’.   BOOM!

xau-87-navigating

SO basically I am expecting that a pullback will end this choppy sideways action.  I am pointing all of these reminder out  ( And will keep doing so) so that my readers dont get frustrated with the current  price action in Miners and say,  ” This rots, I hate Miners. I’m not buying this weak sector anymore!”   Not that you would, but some do, and I think GOOD TRADES are fast approaching.

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So – look at the following 2 charts of  GORO and GSV  and you see some bullish action even now while Most Miners are chopping sideways and pulling back.  This is making me think that when Gold, Silver, and the Miners finally take off upside, Miners may really spring into action as buyers step back in  ( And some shorts cover).

GORO

goro-wkly-9-30

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This was part of my weekend wrap up for the end of September 2016  Oil & Energy trades may make us some extra money while we are waiting for Miners to finally get moving upside, or maybe holding CASH is a position that serves you best. My experience has proven to me that patience during these consolidation periods and buying the dip pays off very well. Thanks for being here, have a great weekend!

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Chart Freak Premium

Chart Freak members receive up to 5 premium reports per week covering a wide array of markets, as this public post illustrates.  Come and join the ChartFreak community as we trade the new Gold Bull Market and various trending sectors.

join-now

~ALEX

 

September 20 – What’s Happening With Gold?

I have a core position in Miners that I started early in 2016. As a trader, I have sold most of my shorter term trading positions and I am waiting for the fat pitch to reload. Are we there or is there further selling likely? I believe that we are very close to another run higher in the Precious Metals sector, but we also have the Fed Mtg on Wednesday that could affect things short term. Are there any clues pertaining to short term direction?  Please read on...

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Did You Buy That Dip?

At Chartfreak, we were anticipating that a higher low in Oil would prove to be an exceptional buying opportunity after  the recent summer sell off.  Cycle timing was telling us that it was 'time' for a low to develop, so we began monitoring the charts using technical analysis and cycle timing.  Did you buy that dip at the right time? Let me show you what we were watching using actual charts from our August reports.  You can ask yourself, if I was a chartfreak member, would this may have helped me with my investing in this sector?

 

WTIC AUG 3 - Anticipating the coming low, I used this chart to start with. We had a 50% retrace and some Energy stocks were beginning to look Bullish too. I encouraged readers not to buy until we get a break above the tight downtrend.

WTIC 8-3 Read More

Gold Core Positions and Miners

 Gold Core Positions and Miners

 

Note: This post is an except from a nightly member only report.

 

SPX - Not much has changed over the past several days, but consolidations often lead to strong moves.

SPX 8-1

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Miner Ideas In A Major Move

I am releasing the premium report that I wrote last Thursday for Friday mornings  trading. I feel that much of it is still applicable today. Enjoy.

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In a recent report I was discussing what I called Giraffes.  These are the special set ups in certain Miners that explode higher giving the chart a look of a giraffe neck. Certain set ups form during consolidations and lead to this price explosion, giving us some big profits. Obviously finding them BEFORE they pop is the key to maximized profits. Lets take a look at some of our Giraffes from past set ups, then I want to discuss what I think will be the next ones.

 

This was our set up in XRA at when it was just under $1.00

XRA 6-27

2 days later we were up over 30% with the giraffe neck 🙂

XRA 6-29b

Lets look at another explosive POP that we caught, and then I'll  point out our next candidates...

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Your Next Step

Your past steps have moved you to where you are today,  your next steps are just as important. Allow me to walk you through a look at what Chartfreak readers were hearing before & after the Brexit vote.  Those steps brought us to where we are now.  I’ll also show what we currently see when it comes to Precious Metals.

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GOLD AND HOW I SEE IT NOW

GOLD 6-28

I kept reading everywhere in Late April / Early May that Gold had to plunge down and tag the 200sma before it could move higher. Why? Many thought that Gold was overextended. I agreed that it could, but I also pointed out that Cycle Timing caused me to be looking for a very important low imminently. I drew a drop to $1200 area, but mentioned that $1170 was possible too.

GOLD 4-29 wkly time#2

As we dropped to the $1200 area , Fib #’s and ‘ Cycle Timing’ came into play. I was looking for a low.

GOLD CURRENTLY IN ITS DROP

 

I then called a possible low at the $1205 area with capitulation type selling scaring everyone away and causing a lot of ‘fear’ talk. I mentioned that I couldn’t tell for sure, but I think that the lows were in or at least a buy-able bounce with that reversal.  I began buying Miners 4 weeks ago, at the end of May.

GOLD 5-27 b

 

This was day 3 of the lows, and an extremely low jobs report was released. Gold blasted off higher. A close above the blue line would confirm my idea of deep meaningful lows ( An ICL).

6-4 GOLD DAILY

I was asked in an email, “What about all those saying that the 200sma needed to be tagged?” I agreed that that ‘tag’ could come, but did it have to be in May?  I said No, and drew this idea.nThe Tag could come later and when the 200sma is actually higher.

GOLD TEST 200sma 6-21

 

Gold was now a bullish set up and was running out from an ICL. We actually had a consolidation from FEB to June, for those thinking that Gold was overextended.  It isn’t, it had gone sideways for months.

GOLD 6-10

Silver stocks have doubled and tripled, is the move in Silver & silver stocks done? This is a great looking base if you ask me, and only the beginning in the long run.

SILVER 6-24

 

And GDX & GDXJ have had great runs higher too, but that may be just the beginning.

GDXJ 6-24

 

Timing a trade is important though. Now I want to walk you through a few trades, and show you a current trade that I think will play out well.

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I recommended VGZ and MUX before they exploded higher. I didn’t offer an exact entry or exit,  just that I had bought them a bit earlier and they were looking at a possible explosive set up.

 

MUX – I had mentioned to my readers that I had been buying Miners and bought MUX in May at the 50sma near $2.25.  June 12 it was now breaking out from a constructive consolidation with great volume. Even at this point it was a buy-able break out.

MUX

 MUX  popped and ran very strongly. It remains near $3.75 consolidating recent gains.

MUX 6-24 like sand

JUNE 13th –  VGZ was at $0.97 .  I bought this consolidation and mentioned that I thought Golds ICL was in,  Miners should be bought.  Dont go ‘all in’, but it was a great trade set up as shown. It had a super base.

VGZ wkly 6-13

VGZ at $2.02.  Gains of over 100% in 2 weeks.

VGZ wkly 6-28

That leads me to today. When those positions get extended, I like to sell at least 1/2 and look for other similar set ups.  I pointed out this stock Monday and even with fundamentals that are not ideal-  the set up is perfect again.

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June 27 XRA– This has had a nice run higher and has consolidated.  I bought it near the 50sma and posted this chart as a buy above support. Another 97 cent stock 🙂

XRA 6-27

XRA –  It wasn’t just the recent consolidation and set up that I liked, I also pointed out that another super base adds  relevance. Does this base look a bit like the chart that follows it to you?

XRA WKLY 6-27

 

VGZ as it broke out and ran to $2+

VGZ WKLY 6-14

Tuesday June 28 –  So again, I had already posted XRA, but I posted it again in todays report.  This is an explosive looking set up, even if one just took it for a quick trade on a possible break out.

XRA 6-28

 

XRA June 29 as I write this report, XRA is up another 13% today. Actually , it just popped up 20% as I was writing.

XRA 6-29

 

THM – I pointed out another one just like it Monday at 75 cents, what a nice set up. Watch these run.

THM 6-27

Boom –

THM 6-28

I am constantly searching for what I know to be explosive set ups in the bullish market sectors,  Right now I am bullish on Precious metals and the set ups look very nice.

 

 So did you buy VGZ, MUX, ASM before they broke out?  Are you in XRA today? Not every trade works out with 20% gains day after day, but these recent gains are seriously helpful to the portfolio.  For example, I also recommended SAND & BTG over the past 2 weeks and with small gains, SAND backed up yesterday on a public offering.    Not a big deal, down 7% and  I am actually still bullish on SAND,  but I just wanted to point out  that not every great set up works right away. A small position in the ones that do make up for any that do not however.  Honestly, other miners recommended are doing well too, and still others are currently ‘setting up’ for possible future explosive moves. 

 

I will keep premium members posted when I see these bullish set ups.  I do see a few more currently acting correctly.  Why not get an extra set of eyes by trying chartfreak for a month?  One trade may pay for that month.   Thanks for reading along, and best wishes!

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~ALEX