The Markets In Review

 

I wanted to open up my weekend report to the public.  Enjoy!

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The Bigger Picture Outlook

I have been asked what my Long Term Outlook is and has it changed after The Fed discussed their plans going forward. I usually discuss the Big Picture in my weekend reports, and I cover short & medium term trades and 'stock picks & set ups' in the daily reports, so I have decided to release last weekends Big Picture Weekend report to the public.

Enjoy!

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Pops And Drops

The Markets were ripping higher, and we enjoyed that ride for months too, along with the Bull Run in precious metals,  but the question is, “Were Chartfreak readers warned or even prepared in any way for the large drop that we got as this week started?”  The answer is Yes, we got a sell signal on Friday, one that I had been telling my readers to watch for .  Let me show you how we were looking at the markets.

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In late January, we were due to form a dcl  ( a dip daily cycle low).  The last one formed at the 34 sma, so I mentioned that this may be the next buy point,  but I did warn that this one is arriving late in the entire ‘intermediate cycle’.    With that in mind, I told my readers that we could buy it, but I also said that I would expect a break to new highs that could roll over quickly. We are due for a deeper drop into  an ICL over time, so I told them exactly what to look for day after day.

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SPX WEEKLY – On Friday, a sell signal that I had been giving my readers actually triggered, so we should sell & be out.  In the weekend report I pointed out other reasons why now we need to be very cautious about being long or jumping back in.  I had been showing strong divergence in my indicators. This looked toppy…

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I posted this.   Notice the blue arrows.  After a long run, a break of the 13 sma led to a drop into a dcl.  Thursday broke that 13 sma, and Friday was only day 14.  A close lower was a sell.  A BIG drop could follow over time, even chopping lower for weeks.

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Here I tried to show that even when markets get stretched, every 6-8 months we should get a deeper dip (ICL) and we have yet to see that. An ICL ( Deeper dip) is overdue.  We were expecting a drop, unless this market was just going to do a blow off parabolic drop.  The sharp drop would then come later.

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FINALLY THE SPX WEEKLY  FEB 21.   The Big Picture still looks as though markets could go parabolic if we only get a back test.  The bull may remain healthy after a deeper ICL correction, while the shorter term daily charts above are calling a top here.  This is  ONE thing that I will be watching going forward.   Will support hold or fail?

 

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What about GOLD, SILVER, and MINERS?  I had been tweeting out several charts showing that we were trading Miners successfully, but what was I putting in my day to day reports?  Here is a very brief review of how we played that sector too.

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GOLD – We actually caught the ICL in November and this break out of the wedge / triangle was confirmation of the bull run continuing.  NOTICE THAT I DREW IT AS LIKELY BECOMING CHOPPY AS IT HITS NEW HIGHS.   Like a cup & handle.   That was just to prepare us for the possible future  chop.

 

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THIS WAS ONE OF MANY GOLD BIG PICTURE CHARTS THAT I POSTED WEEKLY.  It shows us the Bull marching out of a base and back testing that break out.  I said that Gold should continue higher.

 

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JAN 17 –  There will be resistance causing choppiness, but it is still Bullish.

 

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And when we ran to prior highs,  it did get choppy as predicted earlier in December.  It was still Bullish, and here it broke out from a triangle again. I was encouraging my readers to remain long.  I posted many buy opportunities for  Various Miners, some that I tweeted out too.

 

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The GOLD BULL continued to act correctly with a bullish break out.

 

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SILVER IN JANUARY  was lagging Golds run, but it was still building a bullish base.  CAN YOU IMAGINE SILVER STOCKS WHEN THIS BREAKS OUT?  Some that we traded already doubled & tripled with Silver still inside of the base.

 

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Silver at the end of January was Bullish despite the chop &drop too in my eyes.  I said that I would expect to see this choppiness gradually form an inverse H&S.  THAT is a bullish pattern if you see one form…

 

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Well look at that! This is a current chart of Silver and the choppy inverse H&S formed.

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AND THE MINERS? We traded many of them. 

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 GDX was choppy as it dropped into the ICL, and I was getting a buy signal in November. I wanted to point out that that choppiness would soon be a blip in our memories in the big picture

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GDX –  It did run from $26ish to $28, but it remained choppy and frankly it was frustrating, but as it chopped, some individual miners were running higher…

 

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GDXJ –  by the time we got into early January price ran from the November lows to  prior highs.  I now expected a possible handle to form, and by  pointing that out here, it would help prepare my readers for possible more choppy sideways action.  I also tweeted this out.  Follow me at   @chart_freak

 

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GDX JAN 17 –  Though choppy, I wanted to show that the big picture weekly remained Bullish

 

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GDXJ – In mid February we finally got a break from our triangle, so I posted this at 10 a.m. in our live trading area ( an area set aside under each daily report for traders to discuss markets, share ideas, etc).  This was a good place to add.

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  GDXJ FEB 18 –  It held the 50 sma the whole time during that chop and By the close the break out was clear and volume was increasing.

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GDX FEB 24 – Now we have actually reached a ‘measured move’.  This is a conservative measure and it can stretch out higher, but for now we may see a Pause in the upside  (short term pause). A DCL is actually coming due.

 

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In todays premium report, I pointed out possible topping candles.  Some Miners got extended , and that black spinning top may be signaling that gains can be harvested and a pull back is coming.  A DCL is actually coming due in the Miners.

USAS  –Less extended Miners may not pull back as much as others.  USAS for example is a  Silver stock that may run higher if Silver breaks higher.  If Silver pulls back, this may do a smaller dip, since this is not as extended as other Miners.  A small dip as shown is reasonable.

 

ISLVF did get extended, so  a drop something like this is still possible and  yet it remains bullish.  This would  also offer a nice buying opportunity.

 

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Do you think that with your busy schedule, this kind of research may have helped assist you with your current trading style?  Many people just do not have the time to review the markets daily, and that is especially true if you are looking to trade many different individual stocks.   Along with TQQQ, AMD, SQ, TWTR, UBER, ZM, WORK, CRWD, and other tech companies during the bull run, we discussed & traded SOLARS, MJ STOCKS ( which were give & take as they put in their bottoming process) and of course many Miners like AUY, ELYGF, PAAS, SBGL, LGTDF, NEM, BARRICK GOLD, and more.  And just to be honest,  a few  that made great gains for us in May through September 2019 were set up nicely, but fell apart & stopped us out more recently like HMY , SVM, CDE.    What happens next? I cover it in my daily reports and I have a big weekend wrap up , usually released on Saturday.

  If you are too busy to do all of the research yourself, why not sign up & try a month or maybe even a quarterly subscription?  With some of the recent picks in Miners alone, your subscription would have paid for itself.  If you want to know more, click the link below.

Thanks for being here at Chartfreak !

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END OF DECEMBER 2019 – A BIG PICTURE REVIEW

I want to open my recent Big Picture Review report to the Public. The following is a partial report of what I showed my readers a few days ago. Enjoy!

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Dec 24th – Gold

Hello and welcome back to Chartfreak. It has been a while since I did a public post, so what have we been busy with? While we have traded a variety of trade set ups, like AMD, MU, ENPH, VSLR, and other stocks like it in the General Markets, but we have also been watching the Precious Metals Sector very closely. Why? Well we caught the lows in May and rode many Miners higher into September. Some stocks like EGO, SBGL, HMY, DRD, etc doubled and tripled. After a strong rally, you often get a top and a consolidation period, so we exited leverage in August and sold many Miners in September, anticipating a consolidation period and then another strong run higher. Some individual Miners are still running nicely, like SBGL, SVM, HL, CDE, etc, so we continued to trade those, but we have been watching the correction in GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, etc closely, and I wanted to share what I am seeing now.

Monday Gold pushed a bit higher and it has closed above the 50 sma. On what would normally be a light volume week of holiday trading, GDX pushed away from the 50 sma with decent volume. We now wonder: "Is Gold about to rocket higher?" As mentioned, we have been anticipating that possibility for weeks as the sector churns sideways. The Bullish action in Miners on Monday seems to indicate that it is time to go higher and that this consolidation period will end soon.

Let's just take a look at some of the recent charts from past reports along with the current set ups, and discuss further what we have been looking for.

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June 19- FOMC Countdown

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I want to open up a part of the premium report that my subscribers received this morning to the Public.   We are waiting on a FOMC Decision and things often get volatile around that time, so I wanted to share some interesting observations that I have with my readers. After discussing the General Markets and Oil, the report continued with these thoughts...

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USD - My unbiased look at the USD has me thinking that it looks like it wants to go higher short term. If the Fed  DOES NOT cut rates,  the USD could continue a little higher.  However the 50sma could stop the dollars rise because, ...

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Big Picture Weekend Report – June 8th

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I am opening up part of the Big Picture Weekend Report to the Public.  During the week, I focus  my daily reports on daily action in various sectors of the market.  I then also may offer some lower risk entry points or buy set ups if they develop during pull backs. In the weekend report, however, I take a step back and focus on the Big Picture , and this is more than of that report.  Enjoy!

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June 3rd – DIGGING FOR GOLD

My last Public Report was posted on May 11th, where I discussed the big Picture of the General Markets, and what it could mean for the GOLD, SILVER, & The MINERS, and I covered Bitcoin too.   I will do a quick review here using charts from my last public report, and then an update from this weekends premium report.   Since my last May 11th Public Report, we've continued to dig in to the Precious Metals charts,  have taken positions, and are finding that things are now playing out very bullishly for Gold, Silver, and Miners  (As expected).   Todays public report will include a good portion of my recent weekend report.

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May 11th – A Big Picture Report For The Public

It has been a while since I posted a Public Report, so I want to post part of this past weekends report to the Public.

 For my Readers,  I post daily reports to discuss the markets and also offer 'trade set ups' if certain sectors are acting bullishly,  but I like to use the weekend report  to step back and take a look at the Bigger Picture.  This report will show you some of what we have been discussing at Chartfreak.   This is part of the May 11 Big Picture Weekend report .

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An Index & Market Update

The following is an update on the market and indexes.  The charts are a sample of Alex's work from the week.    (2/8/19)

We have been expecting a bit of  pull back in the General Markets, and it would likely start after the SPX tagged that 200sma.   I am not expecting a wash out sell off, it will be more of a ' Buy the Dip' type of pull back into the first dcl, but if you want to hold on to most of your recent gains?  Then at the first signs of cracks in the ice,  you would certainly tighten stops or take some profits.  You want to Stay Frosty for a while.

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SPX - The SPX tagged that 200sma,  dropped to the 10 sma,  and bounced  bit into the end of the day. We are on Day 30  and I expect this to eventually back test the 50sma.

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