Public Report – Bull Flags

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I wrote a report about Bull Flags for the premium members last night. Why?  Questions have been raised.

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On Feb 17th, after the recent run up in Gold, I mentioned that Gold  could Pause and form a Bull Flag.  These are often just a pause along the way  (although they can fail).

Feb 17 – I discussed a possible Bull Flag forming after a strong run higher. 

GOLD 2-17

Feb 24 –   We have the Flag and as mentioned, it is often  just a pause before continuing to run higher.

GOLD 2-24

 

Well on Friday  Feb 24 Gold broke out and dropped.  Many said Gold failed at the Bull Flag.   Friday  Feb 26 ( Today)  Gold dropped down to $1212.  Does that hurt the Bull Flag and prove it is a failure,  like some are saying? 

No- Let me show you 2 ideas that are not a stretch or grasping for straws. These are legitimate patterns playing out .

Gold Today – This shows how Gold dropped today ( And then recovered to $1222 so far). This could be a back test of our break out , not a failure.  That would be bullish.

GOLD 2-26

Gold As of Feb 25 –  This shows that the break out that many say failed, may  really just be setting the  upper trendline , for a future break out.  This flag actually looks like the first one that I drew in on the first chart of this report.

GOLD 2.25

 

Then I started seeing similar bullish formations like ‘Bull Flags’ and ‘Ascending Wedges’ in various Miners.  SO I put several Miners in my report Today in the premium section, to keep an eye on.

  Here are 2 of them :

TGD

TGD 2-25

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VGZ had one this week, and it acted correctly

VGZ 2-25

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 I am NOT saying that these bull Flags cannot fail and lead to a pull back into a DCL soon,  but they can also just get ridiculously overdone to the upside first. These Bullish patterns are consolidations allowing overbought to unwind a bit and then they usually carry on upward.

Todays public report and premium report gives us a few things to watch for, to see whether this remains a runaway type of bullish run, or is a deeper correction starting.

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 I will  discuss other factors  with premium men]mbers too, in the weekend report  that will be out by Sunday night or Monday morning, before the market opens. Have a great Friday & weekend!

 

~ALEX

 

53 replies
  2. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    Good morning, Alex
    Thanks for this report and your coverage of SSRI – it’s been on my wish list for awhile and your noting it made me take a look. It looked like it was going to break below the pennant on opening but seems to have recovered (we’ll see) giving an even better entry point with a closer stop loss – so I took it. Thanks again!
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    • Cal Staggers
      Cal Staggers says:

      PAAS has also been on my wish list (based on fundamentals, like SSRI) – today’s opening had the same tiny fake-out lower opening, but is still in it’s ascending triangle. I’m buying now – do you think it’s chart-worthy, Alex?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      SSRI seems to be dropping below the wedge lower line. Not sure how this will shake out.
      Some Miners holding up pretty well considering that Gold went from a high of 1260+ to now being near $1210

      • Cal Staggers
        Cal Staggers says:

        Considering that 5.41 & 5.27 are the two previous lows inside the pennant, what stop would you use for your trading? I’m looking to get in longer-term, but don’t want to pay more than I have to (of course)

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Looking at X, need some EW help here. I see on the 15min chart we are in wave 3, which should get to $8.73 as 1.618 of wave one? Is that correct? Maria, Alex, anyone?

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I can see the former/ recent high of 8.80 is possible in 1-2-3-4-5 rise higher on the 15 minute chart, as top of 3, and then a small 4 down and new highs on 5 , but I’m not personally dissecting these as day trades.

        I am looking at CENX, AA, AKS, X, etc as buy & hold until something breaks.

        AKS, CENX, FCX etc up around 10% today 🙂

        Some of these commodities are really acting correctly as a stair way higher, so far.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I still really like SWC , especially since the earnings came out .

      its still above the 50sma, and it is also holding the 8 ema / 13 sma for the most part.

      Those are the areas that I am watching

  5. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Refresh for a chart from 2-19
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    SO I think most here know that I bought TRQ for that “Crawl under the 50sma”. Then I got bored with it day after day, not really gaining & holding while other miners did.

    SO I Sold it for a small profit . On a down day in Gold, it is now breaking higher with good volume. Looks ready to run : )

    It happens…ARGH!

    • Curtis
      Curtis says:

      Hi Alex,

      Like CJES,….. SGY got hammered around earnings…they are bouncing off the lows…but do you think they will just rally to the previous lows ( previous support) from the bottom side and then sell off again…. or could it be an ICL and rally back above pre-earning highs….since oil could rally a bit. Just looking for an exit strategy.
      thx

  11. JP
    JP says:

    Nice comment. So the line in the sand is $1207. At the end of the day it sure looks like GOLD is holding and expanding the flag a bit. GDX and GDXJ are weaker today though. Leading?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Jp ( Sorry for late reply, I wasnt here this weekend)

      Using cycles, I have Gold & Miners in different time periods.

      For example GOLD bottomed DEC 3, Miners bottomed with a shake out low in Mid January. I think both are due for a rest, but the bullish pattern could Pop before a drop.

      It has been a great run for both and they continue yo form bullish patterns. A pullback could be a welcome buying opportunity

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