Lets review the movement in various areas of the market that we at Chartfreak have been charting. We will look for Progress in what we have expected.
SPX Nov 20- We expected a back test and drop months ago when it seemed like EVERYONE was uber bullish
DECEMBER – H&S
Obviously we all know that January has been brutal for “longs’, great for those “shorting”. Is it over? Well I do expect a good size bounce soon ( multi week even) , but when everyone becomes bullish again, I’ll be watching the downside …
What about THE DOLLAR…
I’ve been pointing out another double top like last spring, and that makes a monthly double top too. A drop in the dollar in 2016 would be bullish for commodities and precious metals. A much hated area in the past 5 years.
Currently this is my recent view of the Dollar.
OIL – I’m looking for LOWS. We have short term lows in place, and I pointed out in my report that we CLOSED above the 20sma for the first time in months. PROGRESS.
but it may be LONGER TERM lows too. WHY? My November chart . ‘5’ may be completed now . PROGRESS.
NATGAS – We’ve been watching NATGAS. It too is making progress. Remember when everyone was extremely bearish and thought it would drop to $1? I believed a low was imminent.
To be honest – I did not expect the type of snap back rally that we had however. That was strong short covering and buying. I expect higher price, but recently it did dip and then looked like a bear flag MIGHT be forming. SO I drew this with a cautionary note. Yesterday NATGAS made some important PROGRESS.
GOLD SILVER & MINERS
Lets just look at charts of progress that I posted as time went onward. Many were very nervous with Gold lingering at lows, thinking we must drop to under $1000 first. Here is what we at Chartfreak were watching .
GOLDS TRIANGLE BOTTOM identified as of DEC. Bullish MACD & RSI.
Break out – I was also looking for a back test of that triangle, as drawn.
We got the BACK TEST. That was a 2nd BUY opportunity in Gold. The 50sma was tested. ( Progress)
I pointed out that in this GOLD Triangle of the summer of 2012, GOLD back tested/ Miners tested lows , and both took off. That just happened now too.
SILVER JAN 28 – Silver has formed a sort of triangle too. It back tested it yesterday . Will it hold? I gave confidence in my weekend report and mid week that shows an indicator that I use is bullish for Silver. Slow Progress , but Silver can get explosive when it makes its move 🙂
MINERS WKLY CHART- Gold was looking good, Miners sold off to lows ( Like 2012 triangle). This was a “Shake out & recovery ” candle . This was a BUY for miners.
GDXJ was a buy last Friday too.
We started a pullback in Gold and Miners yesterday after a nice run higher this week. IS this run done? Was it just a short covering frenzy? Or is it making progress, possibly following this track?
I will be covering that in the weekend report along with other ideas in other sectors of the markets.
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