Fuel To The Fire

Nov 18,2014 

   Just a few thoughts here, not much has changed.  I had one reader ask me to review the QQQ’s , so I will do that and also use the SPY as an example, but first GOLD. The outworking  of GOLD continue to look and act  like a “Shake out”  & then the final “Lock Out” have occurred.   I actually have people writing me saying they are going to short the 20sma and also will short again at the 50sma.  One asked me  “I added shorts today , when will you be?”   IF THIS IS A LOCK OUT move, shorting is extremely costly. We might get pullbacks here and there on a daily chart, but A short cover rally accompanied by buying can cause a somewhat pause-less rally and the mental damage can cause one to just freeze. So historically, Please look at this Weekly chart ….

 AUDIO CLICK HERE  click here / press download then click OPEN and come back to follow charts

Better to  short this , or buy the dips?

 

GDX ICL

 

Next lets cover Gold as I see it this am ( 6a.m.)…

 

 

GOLD – yesterday I said we might get a “LOCK OUT ” and showed you this (Click to enlarge)

 

GOLD AS I WRITE

 

I awoke to this , and an upside target is $1226 if the price projection gets fulfilled

GOLD NOV 18

 

BUT the way I see it, we could get a pullback first to test the break out. DO NOT be surprised if you see this fall and test the break area (I WOULD like to see the blue line hold though)

GOLD Nov 18 2

 

So yesterday and in the weekend report , I showed a few Miners that look set up at lows and there has been some great follow through.  RIC is just a beautiful chart at all times. As this plays out , I will explain in the future the implications of what this shake out / lock out “COULD” be for the Miners. Just look at RGLD, RIC, and even the junior  LSG…those are strong charts despite the noise around us.

 

RIC for example: new highs yesterday

RIC Nov 18

 

RIC WKLY – this chart is screaming something, isnt it?

RIC Wkly

 

SO I guess for those who want  the “CORE” holdings , some may be presenting themselves now.

 

For the QQQ & SPY request.  It is basically an area that I would not have a trade on the ETFs  (Unless I was long & raising my stops). Individual stocks are mixed, some look excellent, some look to be breaking down,  so I can see this market looks like it wants to “rest” & drop or pullback soon, but it also has a history of making false moves first and THAT can shake people out of longs and shorts.  It also can just go sideways and that would give it enough “Rest” to rejuvenate ,  so let me show you where we are and what I mean.

 

Notice how SPY –  The recent sideways move looks much like prior sideways moves. First you got a POP, then a DROP.  The POP sucks in long positions and shorts cover, then as it drops, the longs get stopped out. Its tricky

 

SPY NOV 17

 

 The weekly Spy chart shows that SEPT was tricky in the same way Look at the red arrow, then Green, then Red.

If you were Long or Short, it would have been hard to hold on…so it is difficult for me to say whether we will POP or DROP ? Personally-  I do think we will move lower, volume is dying.

 

SPY WKLY

 

 

with that above explained –  QQQ WKLY is also indecisive. The red box shows that a sideways move can be boring and difficult to hold. Dead money.

Again, the volume BUYING is dying, so I expect a sideways to down move personally, but I am not trading those etfs currently.

QQQ wkly

 

SO Thats it – The Metals and Miners is the place where I see some good action across the boards . ALL miners are starting to look good and that might remind you of a report that I wrote up called the “Signs of life”  , indicating possible accumulation may be starting at lows. I hope you’ve joined in by now. I wish you the best and thanks for being here. Please share this with a friend that you think might benefit from it  (Maybe  re-tweet).  I want to thank all the re-tweeters out there, its appreciated here and hopefully any who have been sent here by you also have benefited from the recent reports of a SHAKE OUT 7 possible LOCK OUT move in Gold Silver and Miners.

 

~ALEX

60 replies
  1. Gerry
    Gerry says:

    pls open the EURUSD 1h and you will see the same moves at the same time. this can give some hints. when the EURUSD is moving Gold is too!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes, Thx.

      I watch the euro & the Yen and the $USD …I watch many things, but these reports take me 3-4 hrs to draw up charts and write and so on, so I can only cover so much in each. I wanted to post the C.O.T. and BPGDM too, but keep running out of time : )

  2. Gerry
    Gerry says:

    pls open the EURUSD 1h and you will see the same moves at the same time. this can give some hints. when the EURUSD is moving Gold is too!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes, Thx.

      I watch the euro & the Yen and the $USD …I watch many things, but these reports take me 3-4 hrs to draw up charts and write and so on, so I can only cover so much in each. I wanted to post the C.O.T. and BPGDM too, but keep running out of time : )

  3. knight
    knight says:

    some are calling for test of the recent lows or a slightly lower low before we move forward. I can see at least a back test of the 20 day ma. What probabilities do you see of this happening? This sure would catch a lot of people off guard

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I think MOST have been caught off guard right here. The markets may have fooled the crowd again.

      I see many are still short , and maybe wont buy at these high levels …they are waiting for that double bottom. SO a LOCK OUT does what it says….it doesnt lock you out and come back and open the door again…it often proves the shorts wrong. Time will tell if this is a lock out. Has looked like one to me from the start.

  4. knight
    knight says:

    some are calling for test of the recent lows or a slightly lower low before we move forward. I can see at least a back test of the 20 day ma. What probabilities do you see of this happening? This sure would catch a lot of people off guard

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I think MOST have been caught off guard right here. The markets may have fooled the crowd again.

      I see many are still short , and maybe wont buy at these high levels …they are waiting for that double bottom. SO a LOCK OUT does what it says….it doesnt lock you out and come back and open the door again…it often proves the shorts wrong. Time will tell if this is a lock out. Has looked like one to me from the start.

  5. zig zag
    zig zag says:

    Great work as usual. Never thought I would hear the terms, “SPY dead money; Pm’s where the action is” ; Refreshing for a change!

  6. zig zag
    zig zag says:

    Great work as usual. Never thought I would hear the terms, “SPY dead money; Pm’s where the action is” ; Refreshing for a change!

  7. Matthew Goldman Kimher Lim
    Matthew Goldman Kimher Lim says:

    Good miners charts with volume are assuring. Miners have always led. How do we know this isn’t another fake head? If the miners are really marching, this might negat the bull trap that some might be thinking, including me, but what do you see Alex?

      • Matthew Goldman Kimher Lim
        Matthew Goldman Kimher Lim says:

        Alex, we wish there is a way for us to know who else are watch you apart from ‘THEY’.
        So those who held are ‘LOCKED IN’ as THEY had no time to shake these stubborn longs so these longs get LOCKED IN with THEY who tried to shake those longs who bailed out and those shorts that got ran over?

        So like I mentioned the other times,”they wont let them out and then (after the longs bailed) they wont let them in……..so what indicate a good exit for those longs who are locked in? Would you see another lock attempt since they couldn’t shake off those stubborn longs? If there is then it would be another replay of current shake and lock out except this time for those who wants out after taking profit. If that be, then I wonder how high they will take it up to make it attractive for those who want to exit (and regret later thinking they could get in at lower price).

  8. Matthew Goldman Kimher Lim
    Matthew Goldman Kimher Lim says:

    Good miners charts with volume are assuring. Miners have always led. How do we know this isn’t another fake head? If the miners are really marching, this might negat the bull trap that some might be thinking, including me, but what do you see Alex?

      • Matthew Goldman Kimher Lim
        Matthew Goldman Kimher Lim says:

        Alex, we wish there is a way for us to know who else are watch you apart from ‘THEY’.
        So those who held are ‘LOCKED IN’ as THEY had no time to shake these stubborn longs so these longs get LOCKED IN with THEY who tried to shake those longs who bailed out and those shorts that got ran over?

        So like I mentioned the other times,”they wont let them out and then (after the longs bailed) they wont let them in……..so what indicate a good exit for those longs who are locked in? Would you see another lock attempt since they couldn’t shake off those stubborn longs? If there is then it would be another replay of current shake and lock out except this time for those who wants out after taking profit. If that be, then I wonder how high they will take it up to make it attractive for those who want to exit (and regret later thinking they could get in at lower price).

  9. Geurt
    Geurt says:

    Thanks for your excellent report Alex!
    I like to buy RIC, but wait till a pull back comes.
    My question: where is the support line? Or….. where (in a pull back) should I start to buy?
    Have a good day!
    Geurt.

  10. Geurt
    Geurt says:

    Thanks for your excellent report Alex!
    I like to buy RIC, but wait till a pull back comes.
    My question: where is the support line? Or….. where (in a pull back) should I start to buy?
    Have a good day!
    Geurt.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Thank You bhowe – there will be pullbacks likely along the way, but this is more of a recovery mode , and when the rest of the newsletter people see that, more buyers will enter

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Thank You bhowe – there will be pullbacks likely along the way, but this is more of a recovery mode , and when the rest of the newsletter people see that, more buyers will enter

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I have been , along with cola. They’re consolidating gains along with COal stocks . Both are still looking good and I was watching them hold above the 10,20,& 50sma. Some are still extended , others look close.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I have been , along with cola. They’re consolidating gains along with COal stocks . Both are still looking good and I was watching them hold above the 10,20,& 50sma. Some are still extended , others look close.

  11. Geurt
    Geurt says:

    If I had the money Alex, -at this moment- which stock (gold-silver) do you see potency to buy?
    Or…. is it wise to wait for a pull back?
    Thanks for your quick response.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      You want to look for one that is a bit of a lagger. It may play “Catch up”. Yesterday I recommended EXK …I like HL since it got above its 50sma but isnt ON FIRE yet . HL looks similar to ASM yesterday. You MIGHT want to wait for a pullback to be safe, or keep position small until a pullback.
      I always liked SAND, and it hasnt caught fire yet

  12. Geurt.
    Geurt. says:

    If I had the money Alex, -at this moment- which stock (gold-silver) do you see potency to buy?
    Or…. is it wise to wait for a pull back?
    Thanks for your quick response.

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