We’ve Been ‘Conditioned’
OCT 15, 2014 I wanted to try something this morning , and that was to record the session and see if you could all follow along that way. I had my reservations, because I have a Boston accent, but hopefully you’ll be able to understand me despite that. I have taken extra time to also write out the notes, for those unable to hear this recording. When I listened back to it, there was a bit of a click sound at times, I apologize, but for the sake of time, I cannot re-record it this morning. I DO NOT know what it was, I was sitting still, but it sounded like I was tappping or scratching at the microphone (I wasnt ) 
This morning when I started recording (7:30 A.M. Eastern) GOLD was down almost $10 and $Silver was down over 30 cents …they have since recovered after 8:30. Whether that holds or maybe we sell off later, this report is likely still valid, so I am posting it even though they recovered. Below is the original report .
( For the recording link below …It is best to
1. right click over the link and open in a new tab. 2. In that nw tab, you’ll see “Download”, click that 3. your options to ‘save’ or ‘open’…just click open and it will play automatically
go back to this website and follow along. IF You arent good with computers, you can just read what I have written.
Right Click here for the AUDIO CLIP
GOLD – Gold was down $10 in Pre-Mkt and I visited message boards . I kept hearing all over Yahoo, Kitco, etc ” Here we go, another slam down”, but We are not even at the 10 or 20 sma, and we could be testing out magenta trend-line. So selling today would not be bad…look back at MAY and DEC. During those runs, we often dropped to the 10 & 20sma on the way up.
$SILVER Silver doipped to $17 after pushing against resistance at the overhead 20sma. IF that becomes the lows, it would be the bottom of a trend line, as drawn in June when Silver dipped down. This is drawn , NOT to say we will see this, but to give perspective on the possibilities.
$USD – The USD has been very strong , and when I have thought that it would “Correct” in the recent past, it has dipped to the 10SMAand Moved higher (See SEPT)
I think this time we could “MAYBE” bounce & double top, but more likely we pull back now . This would be NORMAL , even if we dipped to my Magenta trend line, its only a 38.2% correction. This would allow the Metals to run up further too.
GDX – Re-visiting the DEC LOWS Notice that price repeatedly was bought up & sold off..this is what bottoms often look like. They shake out weak hands and the big money can scoop up the loose change and “Accumulation” begins to pound out a bottom.
GDX DEC lows VS Now – So if we drop today with Gold down $8 currently , it could look like this and be normal. what I AM watching id the MACD. See in DEC that even thought price dropped and brok to new lows (Shake out) the MACD never crossed back under. I will be watching that today and moving forward )
GDX MONTHLY The MONTHLY chart can be looked at as
1. A consolidation, continuation down later.
or
2. A Bottoming pattern. Look at the MACD and the HISTOGRAM in the lower box. Notice that on a monthly basis, we are AT LOWS, but the HIST has truned positive. This is encouraging and doesnt indicate a break down here I.M.O. Even a bounce to the upper trendline drawn ($28) is a nice score , depending on how you trade it.
Again, Gold & SIlver are down, but looking back to DEC lows and even the May lows, that kind of buying & selling is NOT abnormal. We have been conditioned to get nervous whenever the price drops and it is possible that Big Money can take advantage of that by bouncing price down around the lows to gather up the loose change that falls before them. IF The metals are not your thing…
There are some great opportunities that appear to be popping up in ENERGY. Beaten down & Hated energy stocks are starting to look good again. I like the looks of SCLN (Pharma stock breaking out), and in the middle of a hot sell off, take a look at ARC. It has a mind of its own and good volume to back it up. So there are opportunities out there, you just need to dig around and then when you find something and enter your positions………Stay Frosty!
~Alex
how do we integrate pog with the miners?
I dont. They are not “Equal” so I dont integrate them as a whole. They may move in close similarity, so I just view it that way..separately . I use GOLD as a guide (Since Miners make their money mining GOLD) , but I use charts of each individually. Just like each Miner has its own chart pattern, GDX and GDXJ will vary slightly and GOLD will too.
Hope that helps, if I understood the question.
how do we integrate pog with the miners?
I dont. They are not “Equal” so I dont integrate them as a whole. They may move in close similarity, so I just view it that way..separately . I use GOLD as a guide (Since Miners make their money mining GOLD) , but I use charts of each individually. Just like each Miner has its own chart pattern, GDX and GDXJ will vary slightly and GOLD will too.
Hope that helps, if I understood the question.
Nice addition Alex. Love the accent 🙂
Nice addition Alex. Love the accent 🙂
The recording was great. Clear and strong. The “ticking” sound was unnoticeable for me. Great info as always.
You may want to think about the file format, I listened on an iPhone, had to download a player that could handle the WMA file but no biggy.
Thanks!
Thanks for the feedback BD, and this was kind of a last minute attempt to record and see if it was better for some readers to be listeners – so they can focus on the chart . I actually am going to look into better ways to do it, and possibly a video showing the chart and pointing out what I am discussing as I go along.
A work in progress I guess, and thx again for the feedback
The recording was great. Clear and strong. The “ticking” sound was unnoticeable for me. Great info as always.
You may want to think about the file format, I listened on an iPhone, had to download a player that could handle the WMA file but no biggy.
Thanks!
Thanks for the feedback BD, and this was kind of a last minute attempt to record and see if it was better for some readers to be listeners – so they can focus on the chart . I actually am going to look into better ways to do it, and possibly a video showing the chart and pointing out what I am discussing as I go along.
A work in progress I guess, and thx again for the feedback
Alex, great recording – really enjoyed listening to it. I never heard any ticking sound either. Your voice and the recording in general was very clear. Your ideas came across well. Wonderful addition to Chart Freak.
Thanks Rob! I guess from the feedback, its easier to look at a chart and listen to me discuss it, than to have to read and keep going to the charts. Thanks & nice to hear from the Great White North again!
Alex, great recording – really enjoyed listening to it. I never heard any ticking sound either. Your voice and the recording in general was very clear. Your ideas came across well. Wonderful addition to Chart Freak.
Thanks Rob! I guess from the feedback, its easier to look at a chart and listen to me discuss it, than to have to read and keep going to the charts. Thanks & nice to hear from the Great White North again!
I’ve double nibble downed this AM .
POG is pds no? while everyone seems freaked out look at nugt and jnug under 21.5 and 11.0
The UUP did a monster reversal and Gold or GLD hit “Near” the 50sma. it is reacting similar to both DEC & MAY when it approached this area, paused , and broke through. Maybe a dollar bounce here causes that pause this time? We’ll see if GLD can do the same as it did in MAY & DEC lows.
I’ve double nibble downed this AM .
POG is pds no? while everyone seems freaked out look at nugt and jnug under 21.5 and 11.0
The UUP did a monster reversal and Gold or GLD hit “Near” the 50sma. it is reacting similar to both DEC & MAY when it approached this area, paused , and broke through. Maybe a dollar bounce here causes that pause this time? We’ll see if GLD can do the same as it did in MAY & DEC lows.
Love, love, love the audio.
Thank you!
Thank you PirateZ!
I appreciate the feedback and having you here as a reader (listener) ; )
Love, love, love the audio.
Thank you!
Thank you PirateZ!
I appreciate the feedback and having you here as a reader (listener) ; )
really appreciate your perspectives! and the Audio! tnx
Thank you , Gerhard – for the feedback and kind words
really appreciate your perspectives! and the Audio! tnx
Thank you , Gerhard – for the feedback and kind words
The audio was a great addition! I did not hear any clicking noises either. Thanks again for sharing what you are noticing in the markets!
Tige5! How ya been- and good to see you again. Thanks for the info (I heard a clicking or ticking noise when I listened, glad it wasnt there for others). It looks like audio is the way to go,
Thanks !
The audio was a great addition! I did not hear any clicking noises either. Thanks again for sharing what you are noticing in the markets!
Tige5! How ya been- and good to see you again. Thanks for the info (I heard a clicking or ticking noise when I listened, glad it wasnt there for others). It looks like audio is the way to go,
Thanks !
The audio is a good idea. The sound has a little echo (tin can sound) which is likely due to the microphone being too far from your mouth, allowing the sound to skip around the room and get picked up multiple times just a millisecond after you speak. I’d suggest an inexpensive (or expensive!) mic that either clips to your collar or one that you wear on your head with the little tube/mic that comes across the cheek. It’ll be great. Hey, are we gonna make some $$ pretty soon? A friend of mine is all in SPY and has now ridden it down (yes I told him to begin scaling out just before the top). He’s not a trader but is pretty down in the dumps. Any guidance on how to play such a situation? I’m inclined to tell him to take 10% +/- out now, even at this low point, thinking it might help him regain a sense of being proactive. Then, if there’s a bounce, take out 10% for every 2 point rise of the bounce. But at some point one has to put a line in the sand and just get out; if we drop again tomorrow, maybe just sell all? I’ve been out for some time but I don’t want my buddy to go jumping out any windows.
The audio is a good idea. The sound has a little echo (tin can sound) which is likely due to the microphone being too far from your mouth, allowing the sound to skip around the room and get picked up multiple times just a millisecond after you speak. I’d suggest an inexpensive (or expensive!) mic that either clips to your collar or one that you wear on your head with the little tube/mic that comes across the cheek. It’ll be great. Hey, are we gonna make some $$ pretty soon? A friend of mine is all in SPY and has now ridden it down (yes I told him to begin scaling out just before the top). He’s not a trader but is pretty down in the dumps. Any guidance on how to play such a situation? I’m inclined to tell him to take 10% +/- out now, even at this low point, thinking it might help him regain a sense of being proactive. Then, if there’s a bounce, take out 10% for every 2 point rise of the bounce. But at some point one has to put a line in the sand and just get out; if we drop again tomorrow, maybe just sell all? I’ve been out for some time but I don’t want my buddy to go jumping out any windows.
Great idea on the audio. Another good tool to try is screencastomaic. It’ll allow you to record mp4’s, post to youtube, and do full editing and it’s only $15/year. Great job on the audio – keep up the great work. I just started following you and you’re doing some great calls. Mind if I ask what some of the energy plays you might recommend looking at?
Thanks Alex,
Thanks a lot Banimal…That was good tips there. I’m sure you saw the new Energy report? Best wishes
Great idea on the audio. Another good tool to try is screencastomaic. It’ll allow you to record mp4’s, post to youtube, and do full editing and it’s only $15/year. Great job on the audio – keep up the great work. I just started following you and you’re doing some great calls. Mind if I ask what some of the energy plays you might recommend looking at?
Thanks Alex,
Thanks a lot Banimal…That was good tips there. I’m sure you saw the new Energy report? Best wishes