MARIO SPEAKS TODAY
Thursday Oct 2 , 2014 Mario Draghi is speaking today , and likely it will affect the markets. We have JOBS Report Friday too, so the next few days can affect, even change the markets. The charts are very extended in some areas and almost calling for a little change. Nothing is certain, but lets look at some charts and see if there are clues what kind of changes could take place. We can start with something that certainly could be moved by Mario…
The Euro – $XEU is due for AT LEAST a bounce and may have completed 5 waves for the Elliott Wave fans
The opposite of the $XEU is the $USD. Is that over-extended to the upside? …
Sentiment on the $USD is extreme and the Dollar is certainly strong , but due for a rest. 5 Waves also can be counted here.
If the Euro bounces (Rallies) and the $USD stalls (dips) GOLD & MINERS and the $CRB could find relief from their oversold sell off.
In fact, let me show you what I was watching today …
A gravestone DOJI is often a battle of Bears vs Bulls at lows. It can signal an imminent reversal, ESPECIALLY after an extended downtrend. The selling gets exhausted and it is a sign that Bulls are gaining some control as sellers are almost all out. “Shorts” or ‘Bears’ may then cover shorts and as prices rebound , buyers step in & push price even higher. This is a gravestone Doji-
This is what I saw in GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and many of the Miners today (Sand, RIC, GORO, GG, EXK, ETC)
You see that trendline on GDX, a break above that is Bullish too.
RIC Gravestone Dojis (Etc)
Another thing to watch for is … If Gold / Miners move up into the close of the week- look for a reversal candle on the WKLY charts
In case you dont follow me on Twitter, I Tweeted a few charts today, so I will share them here.
$SPX $IWM $RUT $QQQ $IWC and so on. YES- We could roll over here, MKTS could be at a top. CNBC is talking about “October is bad for the stock market” . Turns out that yes, there have been some BIG DROPS in October, but its about 50/50 as to whether OCT closes higher or lower. Last yr, OCT rallied higher after a quick drop (See chart below) , so while CNBC and others are talking doom … The chart is not there yet. Therefore another Buying Opportunity may be close. I Tweeted these…
IWC
With THAT said, I also drew this SEPT 19 and we have dropped further since, down to $107 and TODAY volume got Heavy.
OCT 1 – IWM Needs watching (Head & Shoulders or fake out shake out?)
Some individual stocks are still pulling back in a proper manner and look to be setting up for another run higher, well have to see how these things play out after Draghi speaks and possibly even the jobs report release on Friday. For now, I really think the Metals / Miners are putting in lows here. I like the set ups on MANY miners now. I will be in & out today , I have things to take care of, so I wanted to post this early so you can have some thoughts in mind as the day rolls along.
I was posting about a stock “LAKE” in yesterday mornings report at 11 a.m. Eastern. It was at $7.50 (You can see the chart in last report). It exploded upward to $9.50 about 3 hrs later. I hope someone ( Day trading? ) was watching and was able to jump in and grab some of that move. The volume came in as soon as it rose up on the 5 minute chart and it looked like nice acceleration. It went up to $8, then sideways, then $8.50, then sideways, then $9 , then sideways, then $9.50. THAT was a great move. Nice and orderly!
Click to enlarge
Thats what you want to see intra-day if your watch-list stock TAKES OFF! 
Best to you all…thanks for checking in!
Click Here – Never miss a FREAK SETUP again, delivered to your inbox, free!.
~Alex
Great write up again Alex.
Some nice set ups showing for the patient few !!
Thats a good point, patience is important , because sometimes these stocks turn up quickly and then reverse down just as quickly. I’ve been stopped out a few times when the rally doesnt hold. I try to watch likely turning points for a low risk entry(Moving averages or support points) & I watch them intraday too. Thanks for stopping by Mark!
thanks
Thank You , Bob
beautiful any thoughts on RADA today? Thanks in advance
Hi Liza- I really like RADA’s set up a lot. I was watching for it to drop to the 10 Weekly Moving Average, but it is holding up. It may be just getting ready to move higher from here. I want to be patient, but when it takes off , it really moves and has nice volume- so keep an eye on it if you’re thinking of getting in. (They’re working on this website & I used to be able to post charts in the comment section, that has changed for some reason or else I’d post one here for you.)
Good stuff Alex. Your analysis is still among the most actionable out there.
Thank You Simon…I appreciate the feedback.
The Mkts seem to be reacting to a lot lately and with Draghi today and Jobs report tomorrow…possibly they bounce a little after that, but I see some signs of weakness here.
And Gold is so oversold & Hated. I had expected a strong flush & then rebound this week or just a turn upward soon. Its getting Late in cycle timing – I really figured we’d see that turn up today or tomorrow. We’ll see .
For me, a break above the 10sma on GDX (And that downtrend-line) might be a good entry.
Nice to hear from you again!
comment check (Just looking to see if the avatars are back)
comment check (Just looking to see if the avatars are back)
Great analysis. Obviously Friday didn’t work out for GDX but this was on news. Caused $ pop. Usually news based pops are given back within a few. Would look for continuation Monday, but $ steam should run out and give metals a chance. Best to wait on sidelines for now. Still buying the dip on equities. S&P calls are a winner on each dip if you don’t have an individual stock to pick. Play the trend until proven wrong.
Great analysis. Obviously Friday didn’t work out for GDX but this was on news. Caused $ pop. Usually news based pops are given back within a few. Would look for continuation Monday, but $ steam should run out and give metals a chance. Best to wait on sidelines for now. Still buying the dip on equities. S&P calls are a winner on each dip if you don’t have an individual stock to pick. Play the trend until proven wrong.