BOTTOM HUNTING PART 2

OCT 14, 2014   Since pointing out a few of the things that I look for to “Indicate” a possible trade-able bottom is near, we have had some improvement and I wanted to point those things out. I also have received concerns (Interesting) that some feel they may be missing the move if they havent taken a position, others who have are feeling anxious a bit too ,that  ‘it’s not working’ . That seems to lead to questions like ,

1. “Are things O.K., feels like we are just going sideways?”

2. Doesnt this look like a possible bear flag?

               And

3. “Do you think it’s too late?”  

4. “Should I just jump in now?”

 

 

   When being asked the above questions, I ALWAYS look back at past similar occurrences to determine what might be happening.

First 2 questions were are we ok?  We are going sideways, looks like a bear flag?   Answer: Yes, it COULD turn into a bear flag.  Thats why you have stops in place, but is it LIKELY a bear flag based on my last report?

Lets the charts answer those questions, and of course since charts change, the answers can too. To The Charts…

 

In my last report:

We were looking at GDX like this, notice the 2 indicators in the bottom boxes, we’ll see if that has improved any.

 

GDX IMPORTANT LOWS

 

   GDX TODAY VS GDX MAY LOWS.  Description below the chart

 

GDX OCT 14

 During a sideways move in MAY, which looked like a possible “Bear Flag”, Indicators turned up BEFORE the real run.

Today , in our current sideways move , One of those 2 important indicators crossed up today.

 

Now the last 2 questions above were based on  Not being in a position.  ( That is how perspective works…being in a position and we worry “What if its a bear flag? Why arent we running up faster?”   Being out of position and we worry,     “Am I missing the bottom?”  or “Is it too late”.  Funny huh?

 

Look at GDX DEC lows and MAY lows.  When BOTH bottom indicators triggered, see the magenta line, the REAL move began. So there was some sideways action, especially in DEC which was deeply oversold. We were deeply oversold now too, so we might drop tomorrow and still be fine. Looking back on the chart , however, we are still fine if we are “OUT” of positions. BOTH indicators have not triggered and as a guide…LIKELY they will when the RSI 10 crosses above 50%

 

GDX OCT 14 longer

 

Zooming in on MAY 2014 lows,  this looked like a bear flag, so staying out may have been prudent. When price broke above the 8sma, it still went sideways, but when those 2 indicators triggered,  it Ran up nicely. WHEN THEY TRIGGERED, the RSI 10 moved above the 50% .  Keep that in mind . You would have caught GDX $23 to $26.5 (JNUG/NUGT Score)

GDX MAY LOWS  Close up

 

Finally – a close up of now and a summary.

Volume is light, looks like a bear flag…could it be?  YES.

Should I get in now , or wait? Am I missing the move?  Use the charts to decide.

You “Might” miss “THE BOTTOM”, but you will catch the meat of the move IF IF IF , we are at the type of Meaningful lows, (ICL) that I feel me might be and you wait for both indicators to trigger.

 

GDX OCT 14 now

 

So be safe, if you’re in…you have to use and Honor stops.  HOWEVER, if You are in  Be Aware that – as we go sideways like DEC, you may get stopped out.  WHAT??  WHY do I say THAT?

Well, we went sideways at what looked like the ICL for Many DAYS in Dec…then a quick slam  shook out those nervous holders, stopped them out RIGHT BEFORE THE REAL RUN.   Really?   Yes see below…

DEC SHAKE OUT

 

That DEC chart shows that my indicators worked perfectly to enter at a relatively safe area. If you like to look at them BEFORE they trigger and get in early at what could be THE LOWS –  then you MIGHT be nervous about the lack of upside, you might get nervous that a bear flag looking move is taking place, and you MIGHT Give up your shares at the very bottom similar to when we dropped after Dec 9 .

 

THAT is how the markets work my friends. We never know 100%,and they like us  shaken  AND   stirred.   I like to allow the charts to tell me a story, be it ‘a good history lesson’ , or ‘history in the making’. I try to stay unbiased and I know that markets move fast so I need to —STAY FROSTY!

Best wishes to all …

 

~Alex

 

 

 

56 replies
  1. deshy
    deshy says:

    Thanks again Alex!

    Wanted to know if you had any thoughts on Suncor? Yes, I realize that oil has been annihilated and Suncor chart does not look pretty but I do recall you had mentioned several months ago that this may be a long-term hold. Any thoughts now that it has significantly pulled back and seems waaay oversold?? Or maybe it’s justified?

  2. deshy
    deshy says:

    Thanks again Alex!

    Wanted to know if you had any thoughts on Suncor? Yes, I realize that oil has been annihilated and Suncor chart does not look pretty but I do recall you had mentioned several months ago that this may be a long-term hold. Any thoughts now that it has significantly pulled back and seems waaay oversold?? Or maybe it’s justified?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      DESHY – let me take a look, BRB.

      Ok, Deshy, the way I see things, this is VERY oversold, so it is due for a bounce, but at that point you’d have to see how that bounce unfolds to know whether it is trying to bottom. In other words…does it gain traction and rally more than a bounce? Does it bounce, drop on lighter volume & double bottom with divergence? etc It lost the 200sma…does it bounce to “TAG” it then start down again? so I’m sorry, but in free fall…the best thing to do is watch and see what it wants to do. Play the bounce above the 9SMA if you wish ? and so on.(The wkly chart could target $26 or maybe $28!) I’ll include a chart of possibilities…click to enlarge

      • deshy
        deshy says:

        Thanks for the chart Alex! Fantastic stuff! Wouldn’t have thought $28 in play but I can now see where that potentially comes from.

  3. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    Alex, your gold bottom is FABULOUS!!! Thanks so much. I watch similar indicators. I have been in and out twice with positions. Although I entered in a low risk area, I still had to deal with a pullback. I got out both times even on a little rally. I am awaiting the right time to jump in big – I know, there is never a perfect time. Today HMY is up 7% as I write and I thought that it was a loser. HL is also up big. Most of my golds are turning up, but not yet as you say. Thanks for your great work!

  4. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    Alex, your gold bottom is FABULOUS!!! Thanks so much. I watch similar indicators. I have been in and out twice with positions. Although I entered in a low risk area, I still had to deal with a pullback. I got out both times even on a little rally. I am awaiting the right time to jump in big – I know, there is never a perfect time. Today HMY is up 7% as I write and I thought that it was a loser. HL is also up big. Most of my golds are turning up, but not yet as you say. Thanks for your great work!

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Yes, I see some of the hated beaten up Energy sector coming alive. Nice eye GLMUS

          * They are Very Oversold, but notice that ANR did this a few days ago & a few before that. So watch for a break above 9 sma (you want it to close there)

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Mm Eeee (is that YOOOUU!?) I’m sorry, but I consider them my own, but I’ll be using them here when they are needed. Right now it looks like ( I’m not 100% sure, but looks like ) they’ll all be triggered if the RSI10 moves above the 50% line, so you can use that real time if you are waiting.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Mm Eeee (is that YOOOUU!?) I’m sorry, but I consider them my own, but I’ll be using them here when they are needed. Right now it looks like ( I’m not 100% sure, but looks like ) they’ll all be triggered if the RSI10 moves above the 50% line, so you can use that real time if you are waiting.

  5. CS
    CS says:

    Great stuff Alex, many thanks for your help as we try to navigate this slippery market. Always enjoy reading your posts!

  6. CS
    CS says:

    Great stuff Alex, many thanks for your help as we try to navigate this slippery market. Always enjoy reading your posts!

  7. knight
    knight says:

    great charts alex. Would appreciate an update when your indicators give the go ahead. No indicators are perfect but they look pretty good!!

  8. knight
    knight says:

    great charts alex. Would appreciate an update when your indicators give the go ahead. No indicators are perfect but they look pretty good!!

  9. thebeek
    thebeek says:

    I’ve been stink bid, nibbling in, at lower half of your bottoming ‘box” Actually sold once/twice, (fear and greed) and then got back in. over last 8 days or so.
    wondering if you might share a bit how we might measure risk to downside, comparing to upside potential in this sort of ‘bottoming/consolidation’ pattern? of course I’m in the X’s. lol
    ps. Please keep your secret. thanks again.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Beek – Downside risk is that you stop out at the FED MINUTES lows. If they do a “Shake out” like DEC lows, you just have to re-enter if it looks like the real move is upward…, but a break below those lows ‘now’ is too early to be a shake out- it is possibly another leg down and cant risk riding that.

  10. thebeek
    thebeek says:

    I’ve been stink bid, nibbling in, at lower half of your bottoming ‘box” Actually sold once/twice, (fear and greed) and then got back in. over last 8 days or so.
    wondering if you might share a bit how we might measure risk to downside, comparing to upside potential in this sort of ‘bottoming/consolidation’ pattern? of course I’m in the X’s. lol
    ps. Please keep your secret. thanks again.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Beek – Downside risk is that you stop out at the FED MINUTES lows. If they do a “Shake out” like DEC lows, you just have to re-enter if it looks like the real move is upward…, but a break below those lows ‘now’ is too early to be a shake out- it is possibly another leg down and cant risk riding that.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I’m not EXACTLY sure what you mean by that,but yesterday we talked about Ebola stocks , if you’re referring to that…Yes, the profit sharing was deep! I feel bad for the After Hr buyers of ‘Lake’ & “apt”…I watched them buying Lake above $32 and its $10 down from that after today. APT traded at $12 after hrs and closed today near $7…Ouch.
      I hope you’re doing fine –

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I’m not EXACTLY sure what you mean by that,but yesterday we talked about Ebola stocks , if you’re referring to that…Yes, the profit sharing was deep! I feel bad for the After Hr buyers of ‘Lake’ & “apt”…I watched them buying Lake above $32 and its $10 down from that after today. APT traded at $12 after hrs and closed today near $7…Ouch.
      I hope you’re doing fine –

  11. thebeek
    thebeek says:

    Hi Liz,
    Wondering how hi in the air today? I’ve had a year feeling out these ICL’s and they’re not getting any easier when you toss in the influence of a mis directional POG. Down $10 tonite! again! However if looking at alex’s charts it helps hold out the noise of the frenetic POG. I’ve studied these last four ICL’s pretty well, and I swear any more that the POG sways in a manner design to toss off the miners ahead of schedule.Tomorrow will throw out some more, so stick with alex’s game plan. I’m playing with 10% of my PM budget in hopes of the lowest start in a potential large lift off. I got fortunate last Xmas. And there are similarities this month

  12. thebeek
    thebeek says:

    Hi Liz,
    Wondering how hi in the air today? I’ve had a year feeling out these ICL’s and they’re not getting any easier when you toss in the influence of a mis directional POG. Down $10 tonite! again! However if looking at alex’s charts it helps hold out the noise of the frenetic POG. I’ve studied these last four ICL’s pretty well, and I swear any more that the POG sways in a manner design to toss off the miners ahead of schedule.Tomorrow will throw out some more, so stick with alex’s game plan. I’m playing with 10% of my PM budget in hopes of the lowest start in a potential large lift off. I got fortunate last Xmas. And there are similarities this month

  13. thebeek
    thebeek says:

    Mr. one track mind here. Geez. There are many crashes way larger than the indexes right now. regards, bob

  14. thebeek
    thebeek says:

    Mr. one track mind here. Geez. There are many crashes way larger than the indexes right now. regards, bob

  15. ntr
    ntr says:

    if you have time, would like to hear your thoughts on SMED. another ebola play.
    Huge volume this past 2 days.

  16. ntr
    ntr says:

    if you have time, would like to hear your thoughts on SMED. another ebola play.
    Huge volume this past 2 days.

  17. Liza Friedlander
    Liza Friedlander says:

    yes i sold EARLY morning when i saw what was going on…now I have to find something new and exciting….I hope all is well with you!

  18. Liza Friedlander
    Liza Friedlander says:

    yes i sold EARLY morning when i saw what was going on…now I have to find something new and exciting….I hope all is well with you!

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