HIGHER RISK

Low Risk & Higher Risk

October 20, 2014  There comes a point in every trade where (Hopefully) you get a low risk entry, and then as time moves forward, it becomes a little higher risk to enter, or even higher risk to just hold your current position. We may not be there yet  (As I start writing, futures are up nicely) , but what I am seeing leads me to believe that the Markets MIGHT just be in a bounce and MIGHT make lower lows at some point. I looked at TONS of charts this weekend, and the reversal that most of us bought was indeed a trade-able reversal, but what Now? Lets look at MANY CHARTS and try to get an idea of what is happening.  I will say that at this point ,  anything can happen…its not super clear, and that alone means we are at a slightly higher risk area. I can make the case that Markets could be on the way to making new highs, I can make the case that markets likely will make new lows. Actually Much of it depends on … 

  (I apologize, no audio today – sore throat and cracky voice)  : (

 

The $USD…  Oct 14 – Very strong, but overdone–I was looking for a drop to the 84 area

$USD OCT 14

 

And we have dropped as expected, but theres room for more downside I.M.O.

 

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GDX & GDXJ

GDX OCT 17

 

Just quickly –  GDX & GDXJ  were pinched in between 2 moving averages and a possible bullish flag was forming.  At the APEX, it is breaking down. It could test lows (they were high volume candle)  or it could break lows, so traders should trade accordingly.

1.  Honor your stops if you got in early & raised them to lock in profit  (then keep an eye on it. 

                                                  Or 

2. Honor stops below the FED MINUTES lows and watch it

 

~ALEX

 

.

 

 

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GAPS

Dont You Just Hate Gaps?

October 17, 2014 

 

I hate gaps, and the markets are set to break away with a pretty large GAP this morning.  When markets GAP  Higher at the open, they can do a number of things from there, and THATS why I hate gaps. I had a large number of buying opportunities in my sights for you.  If you look at the “Comments” section from yesterdays report, BANIMAL asked me about what I was seeing, and I told him that I was seeing reversals across the board, and was planning on sharing my thoughts. GAPS tend to change that, so from here…Lets review some Charts

On OCT 15 – I thought we made capitulation Lows and TWEETED the following charts (Do you follow me on Twitter?)

 

Click here , then   look for “Download & click it.  Click  “OPEN” and when you hear me…hit the back button (Get back to the this website & follow charts below)

 

SPX REVERSAL

 

SPX REVERSAL

 

 Also notice  the following 3 charts , adding weight to the idea that we were at capitulation lows…

 

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LIGHTNING

ENERGY!

OCTOBER 16,2014    I saw so many reversals in the markets yesterday that I had to do a double take! I think the selling has exhausted and the moves upward from here can be an explosive mix of short covering and also buyers jumping back in to make some fast % gains. I want to focus mainly on ENERGY, since it was beaten down relentlessly, it may recover equally well.  We all need ENERGY, right? It got ridiculously overdone… In PRE-MKT the markets are again down a lot.  They are set for another GAP DOWN, but its worth  watching intraday.  Yesterday we gapped down and and reversed strongly, will we do that again?  Is it a buying opportunity?  To The Charts!   (I apologize if you’re short on time, This is a long report recording, you may just want to review the charts quickly on your own)

http://www.screencast.com/t/3xozpTzUwo  - Right click link  , then open in a new tab – look for ‘download’ and click it, then click “OPEN” and it should play automatically

 

XLE

XLE

 

That Extreme type of parabolic drop and sudden sharp reversal should be seen throughout the sector, lets examine several  more charts …

 

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Update

Quick Market Update

Oct 15, 2014     In the comments section of this mornings post , just asked me about the markets. His friend is invested heavily and has taken the recent ride down…what to do? I thought I’d try to post a quick comment or two.

 

Right Click here / click ‘down load’ and  click ‘OPEN’ to  play

 

SPX WKLY

 

SPX

 

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Advice

We’ve Been ‘Conditioned’

OCT 15, 2014   I wanted to try something this morning , and that was to record the session and see if you could all follow along that way.  I had my reservations, because I have a Boston accent, but hopefully you’ll be able to understand me despite that.  I have taken extra time to also write out the notes, for those unable to hear this recording.  When I listened back to it, there was a bit of a click sound at times, I apologize, but for the sake of time, I cannot re-record it this morning. I DO NOT know what it was, I was sitting still, but it sounded like I was tappping or scratching at the microphone  (I wasnt )

 This morning when I started recording  (7:30 A.M. Eastern) GOLD was down almost $10 and $Silver was down over 30 cents …they have since recovered after 8:30.  Whether that holds or maybe we sell off later, this report is likely still valid, so I am posting it even though they recovered.  Below is the original report .

(  For the recording link below  …It is best to

1. right click over the link and open in a new tab.  2.  In that nw tab, you’ll see “Download”, click that  3. your options to ‘save’ or ‘open’…just click open and it will play automatically

go back to this website and follow along.   IF You arent good with computers, you can just read what I have written.

Right Click here for the    AUDIO CLIP

 

 GOLD    - Gold was down $10 in Pre-Mkt and I visited message boards . I kept hearing all over Yahoo, Kitco, etc  ” Here we go, another slam down”, but We are not even at the 10 or 20 sma, and we could be testing out magenta trend-line. So selling today would not be bad…look back at MAY and DEC. During those runs, we often dropped to the 10 & 20sma on the way up.

 

 

GOLD OCT 14

 

 

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ELMER

BOTTOM HUNTING PART 2

OCT 14, 2014   Since pointing out a few of the things that I look for to “Indicate” a possible trade-able bottom is near, we have had some improvement and I wanted to point those things out. I also have received concerns (Interesting) that some feel they may be missing the move if they havent taken a position, others who have are feeling anxious a bit too ,that  ‘it’s not working’ . That seems to lead to questions like ,

1. “Are things O.K., feels like we are just going sideways?”

2. Doesnt this look like a possible bear flag?

               And

3. “Do you think it’s too late?”  

4. “Should I just jump in now?”

 

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ELMER

BOTTOM HUNTING

October 13  2014

     Often you will hear the expression  “Dont try to catch a falling knife” when a sector or stock is relentlessly selling off. In the past few years , we have seen it repeatedly happen in the Precious Metals sector, and most of you are ware that we had some significant lows in place on June 2013, Dec 2013, May 2014.   I have been saying that I think we are at another significant low  (If you follow Cycles, you know it as an ICL) .   Is it possible that we could go lower, instead of trading off the current lows put in after last weeks FED MINUTES?   Of course, but are there ways to look at  – actually  look INTO –  the markets,  and try to gain some insights as to what may be currently happening.  I want to show you what I look at in times like these…it is by no means guess work. Starting with SILVER

 

Starting with SILVERS break down, most see it as a “Continuation” pattern  (And it may be).

 

SILVER continuation

 

Sometimes a move like that can just “Run the stops” set at those levels to “Shake out” weak hands. If THAT was the case, you would expect SILVER to do more than just “Back test” that broken floor. Look at my next chart of Silver Below…

 

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For Any Who Followed This Trade

OCT 10    Midday  Sold Partial position in APT,  liberal stop set on the rest .

 

APT SELL today

 

   I dont usually post my “Sells” , I leave it to the reader to trade at their own risk / reward formula.  I just wanted to point out that THIS  is now extended 150% above the 50sma, since it went up over 100% in just this week.   It is possible that It may just go sideways for a while and allow moving averages to catch up  ( like VIMC did when I sold that), but taking some money off of the table is usually wise here.

Yes - VIMC has dropped & moved sideways to the 13 & the 20sma in the past couple of weeks, holding up well.  It is actually there now, so it’s even  a tad  higher now than where I sold it! Holding may have been ok for that one , but who can tell?  locking in at least partial profits is prudent when they get this overdone.   Look at DGLY  , for example.

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SOX

ATTENTION ALL TRADERS

OCT 10    

—Have you ever been skating on ice and suddenly you notice a big crack?  How about a HUGE CRACK? 

We may want to keep that  PANIC  BUTTON  handy.  THIS just raised its ugly head.

 

                                                                         CAUTION WARRANTED!

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