GOLD WATCH

You Have 1/2 Day To Decide

11/28/2014

   GOLD!    Meltdown? Blast Off? Non-Event? The question on many investors in the metals markets this weekend points towards the SWISS REFERENDUM. And as far as holding your current positions or selling them, you now have 1/2 day to decide whether you should HOLD or you should SELL.  Let me just say, I’ve laid out the BULLISH case here for the past 3 weeks and so far, we have seen matters play out exactly as I thought it would.   However, The event Sunday can cause a knee-jerk reaction and so I want to mention that there is no shame in selling if one is unsure or nervous. Todays 1/2 day of trading is your last chance to do so. I am here to again review why “Nothing has changed” so far, because I did get a good number of emails asking me about that.

 

GOLD  –  Yes it has sold off again.   In many prior reports I mentioned that Fridays have been pretty predictable that way lately, so that you’d be prepared. Take a look,  does it look absolutely broken to you?

 

Gold 1179

 

That $1179 has been an important number,on Nov 18 I shared this chart below on FED day to prepare us for that…

 

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it

DID YOU SEE ‘IT’ THIS TIME?

Nov 25      PART 1   This  first part of this report I wrote at Noon time Tuesday.

AUDIO LINK    click here / then click ‘download’ –  then click “open” & return here to follow charts when you hear the audio

   Follow my thinking on this one  :    Earlier I discussed the SWISS BANK REFERENDUM and how some may be cautious going into the weekend with that on the table.  Anyone who has entered trades in the Gold & Silver markets may be planning on Selling Friday, especially if they didn’t buy near the lows and cant take a possible “Gap Down” Monday after the vote.  I have pointed out that for the past  3 Fridays People are nervous holding metals positions into the weekend.  I see on several Blogs each week,  “I am NOT holding Miners into the weekend” and then Friday there is a sell off in GOLD only to see that  later it closes GREEN .   Interesting . 

Could selling this week be  “The Final Shake Out / Leave many behind move”  before a nice break out higher?  Break out?  Yes, above the 50sma on $GOLD $GDX $GDXJ 

 

GOLD 50sma dance

 

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AWARE

Things To Be Aware Of

Nov 25, 2014     AUDIO HERE  http://www.screencast.com/t/X77Ul4hyP

   We have a light volume / Holiday shortened trading  week in the U.S. Mkts this week  , so In todays report I  just wanted to point out a few things that are Noteworthy.

BRIEFLY let me just mention that the SWISS Referendum. It is a  vote that takes place on Nov 30 deciding 2 things actually. 1.  Whether or not the Swiss National Bank should be barred from further selling of their gold reserves. 2. It also would mandate that they need to more than Double current reserves!  THIS VOTE takes place …………………SUNDAY.  Its important to note because it may influence how you are positioned going into the weekend. I believe the vote could be a “catalyst” for strong POP in Gold Monday or possibly even a sell off into a somewhat early Daily cycle low. If you want my opinion, I think a NO VOTE is expected and so its already baked in.  A YES vote would cause a strong rally , because there are bullish implications ( Swiss Bank Cant sell Gold / Swiss Bank must begin buying / Accumulating Gold  (they currently hold 8% of assets in Gold and the vote would mandate accumulating and holding at least 20% over time). There is more , but that’s enough to know for now.  Here is how I am looking at GOLD from day to day.

GOLD Please notice the “NOISE” zone. (Click chart)

 

GOLD NOV 25

 

It seems that when GOLD drops only $5- $8 ,  I get emails asking for an update.  I am told that accumulation is lightening and this is apparently bearish, etc.  Realistically, GOLD cannot stand at 1 price all week, it has to be allowed to rise & fall…to fluctuate  (likely that could occur until that NOV 30 vote).  Please notice this GOLD NOISE ZONE in the chart above .  Gold in this area need no update, its acting normally.  A break out or break down might need to be addressed.

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shorting

Am I Comfortable In Shorts Here?

Nov 23  Weekend report (Sunday 5 p.m.)

 Someone asked me to let them know when I’m comfortable shorting the Gold/Silver market in the next few days, especially since The $USD Popped Friday.   I’m glad you asked! While there always may be some ‘short term’ success in a short position from day to day… I still  believe that it will end badly for stubborn shorts in the next few weeks.  If you have been reading my reports for the past 2 weeks then  you know what my thinking has been.  Not only does it remain the same, but I believe we could get an accelerated move upside after a few minor dips in the coming weeks and I would NOT want to be caught in shorts out in those waters.  Let me show you why…

Recall that In this  Friday  Nov 7th report here –   http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/11/07/scary-yet-beautiful/    ( And the following  wkend report)  I called the GOLD lows Pre-Market.

( Audio link here : Nov 23 wkend report Click the link, click “Download”  then click “OPEN” & return here to follow along )

SO 2 weeks later, with those LOWS still in place, I want you to note this $GOLD / $USD CHART last May 2014 :

 

GOLDS MAY LOWS

Once the GOLD lows were in, In MAY the dollar popped and GOLD resisted.

DID you notice that on Friday this week the $USD popped, and $GOLD went up too?

Notice also on the above chart  what Going short on a reversal after the lows lead to pain.  Also …

 

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Fri

The Friday Illusion Again?

Nov 21, 2014   Freaky Friday  6:00A.M.

Will they sell Metals off?  Will they buy it back?  Will Metals break out higher going into the weekend, when less people are likley to BUY & HOLD ? Its hard to know exactly what we will see, but lately Fridays have been exciting in the Metals markets,  so  I got up at 5 a.m. today to see if the Friday shenanigans that occurred in Gold the past 2 Fridays would return.  So far, it seems likely.   Well, if you’ve read my prior reports, then you know what I am looking for at the end of Friday on the weekly charts, so I will just touch on a few things here and then take a look at a couple of other interesting chart developments elsehwere. 

First- this is the “SNAPSHOT” I woke up to…   whats your first thought?

5 30 a.m.

It looks like another dollar rally coming , and a Gold slam down, but notice this ….

 

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Fed

I TOLD YOU FED MINUTES ARE FUN!

Nov 20,2014  (also known as The Day After )

 Well, Never a dull moment of a Fed Day, huh? Some have written and asked if “Lock out” is out of the way now. I would say no. It may be even more of a Lock Out I cannot imagine that this “SHAKEOUT” was bought by many either. We had a shake out below that critical $1179 area and it again recovered. Did any buy? I know 2 of my readers wrote that he / she bought (knowing in advance that a shake out could happen).  THAT was brave! I imagine that MORE people grabbed DUST, went short , or bailed out. Some wrote and told me that they were advised to add to DUST by other letter writers.   Let me show you how I walk through this roller-coaster ride.  Overnight…how did GOLD react? Charts below.

 

AUDIO LINK   click here, click download/ click “OPEN”  – return to follow charts

GOLD  FOR PERSPECTIVE-  The whole story so far

GOLD NOV 20

Amazing how “Orderly” that chart looks in Hindsight, isnt it? so…

 

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Min

YAY! Its a FED MINUTES DAY!

Nov 19,  Wednesday 

  Well, Fed minutes, thats always fun!  Why?  Whatever you see happen this morning may be undone by the close.  Or subtle moves may become explosive moves, and I mean in either direction, right?  So Today I’m just doing a this report  to point out a couple of things of interest. Likely you noticed that We have been discussing Metals and Miners a lot lately. That is  because I have wanted to walk you through a day by day bottoming process and show you what I look for. It isnt reassuring to just hear someone say “GO LONG” and you blindly jump in only to get knocked back out. This way we have now already discussed important areas to watch and with the fed minutes we are prepared for any volatility that may follow. I also want to point out a couple of other interesting areas , so lets hit a couple of charts. I will start with reminders to prepare us for Fed Minutes.

To hear AUDIO    click here / Then click ‘download’, then click OPEN . when U hear audio – return to follow the charts here

GOLD NOV 7 – Pre mkt I saw a shake out in real time, so  I pointed out an important part of the “Shake Out”  was to recover June 2013 lows of $1179 again on a weekly basis, using this chart in the weekend report.

GOLD WKLY

 

After days of volatility  , we see that…

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SHORTy

PART 2 Fuel To The Fire

Mid day Nov 18

As we watch the day unfold, I am still seeing some Bears add to their shorts here in public blogs.  It’s tough to watch if you think that we have more upside, and I’m not happy about it, just pointing out what that might mean .  They want to add here trying to  make their money back if prices drop. Some are still saying that   “KIng Dollar will crush the Metals” and  “It was a Break Down of Triple Support, now support is broken , so its going to crash.”    As I have outlined here…It had the makings of  a “Shake out” &  Now looks to be a “LOCK OUT”.     When these shorts finally throw in the towel, prices should even climb higher leaving them with bigger losses and then for them, prices are too high to jump into ,  without feeling like they are chasing.  I want to share with you another development…MINERS.

As explained in an earlier report- A  “SHAKE OUT” is when price breaks below support and causes “Shorts” to take or add to existing positions. Prior support SHOULD become resistance, but IF support is recovered – it is viewed as a “shake out”. I pointed that out in GOLD.  Today we see MINERS acting in the same manner. Notice…

 

GDXJ – I was watching for a recovery here too and drew this chart at noon. Since then,  It has now recovered its support level. Price as I write is Currently $29.22 . A close Above $28.82  is Bullish.

 

GDXJ Recovery

 

What about GDX? …

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SHORTy

Fuel To The Fire

Nov 18,2014 

   Just a few thoughts here, not much has changed.  I had one reader ask me to review the QQQ’s , so I will do that and also use the SPY as an example, but first GOLD. The outworking  of GOLD continue to look and act  like a “Shake out”  & then the final “Lock Out” have occurred.   I actually have people writing me saying they are going to short the 20sma and also will short again at the 50sma.  One asked me  “I added shorts today , when will you be?”   IF THIS IS A LOCK OUT move, shorting is extremely costly. We might get pullbacks here and there on a daily chart, but A short cover rally accompanied by buying can cause a somewhat pause-less rally and the mental damage can cause one to just freeze. So historically, Please look at this Weekly chart ….

 AUDIO CLICK HERE  click here / press download then click OPEN and come back to follow charts

Better to  short this , or buy the dips?

 

GDX ICL

 

Next lets cover Gold as I see it this am ( 6a.m.)…

 

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LOCK up

Signs of a Lock Out

Monday Nov 17,2014  

Just a Quick memo today, because I think that “The weekend report said it all”   as far as How I am seeing things and what I am thinking. Now we have to wait and see and look for either follow through or other activity that confirms or negates  the things that I mentioned in the weekend report.  Also I see that the report did raise a couple of questions that I noticed in a few emails. “What do I do” and “Can I go long?”  “Should I hold my DUST & sell on a dip & then Buy a pullback?”   Quick review and then a few ideas.

How I feel about DUST & SHORTS. I believe that because of the strong run up  (On a FRIDAY) we saw a possible Shake out AND a possible “LOCK OUT”. A LOCK OUT  is when they sell prices down and get people to bail out on longs, run the stops, and even encourage heavy shorting, since they break prior “SUPPORT” levels. Those support levels become resistance,right?  Since $1179 was support turned resistance , but offered No Resistance on Friday…it is looking like a possible “LOCK OUT” now.   $1179 becomes support again. That is when Buyers now have a hard time buying- they have been mentally locked out. They even expect a pullback after Fridays straight up move, so they hold “SHORTS” to sell for at least a little less of a loss.   Here is the chart of GOLD FRIDAY - (Click to enlarge)

 

GOLD NOV 17

That run up plowed right through the “Resistance” of $1179 , and…

 

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