LESSON

LESSONS

September 30, 2014      

 

                  Sometimes you learn little things along the way in life, and they become lessons that ring true with time.  They then become so common to you, that you forget that it was an important lesson once . I remember sitting next to a 4 year old eating Yogurt and he says to me, “Why do you put blueberries in your yogurt?”    I thought…” Wow,  is that a learned feature? I thought everyone knew that sometimes fruit in yogurt is a bonus! I need to get this kid some strawberries!”     So it seems that unknowingly, we take for granted & forget to share with others what seems like “the Little Things” , so I wanted to just share one important lesson that I have learned (  Thank You William O’Neil) , that can help traders / investors.  I just got ‘schooled’ on this lesson this month!

 

This was the IPO GO PRO in June – Aug

 

GPTO AUG 27

 

 

We all love GPRO  .  If this breaks out to new highs, do we buy? It looks a bit “EXTENDED”, no?  If we own it do we sell?  THATS where the lesson lies….

 

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GOLD Bricks

UPDATE

  Sunday Sept 28     I dont know what it is… it’s either when I write about the Gold/ Silver/ Metals market or maybe its whenever I write something that is contrary to what the crowd is  thinking,  but after one of those two ideas is presented,   I get a lot of feedback  ( and I love it! ).  I got a good number of comments below the previous article for the public to see, but also many write to me by email and share thoughts or ask questions too. It was really a lot of good constructive feedback, so thank you!  I’ve decided to do a follow up to Thursdays report that I posted Friday morning and I’ve dug into more charts to explain what I am seeing. Some of it basic and some of it a bit deeper.

  To start with,  lets I review what was happening on  May 30 2014.    Gold had recently broken down from a “Continuation triangle”  the ‘measured’ target was $50 lower, but most felt $1180 would be broken, maybe $1150 or worse would get tagged.  EVERYWHERE I looked , articles were talking about “SEASONALITY” in Gold being Late July & AUG . THATS when “we should buy the bottom” , they were saying…the LOWS would be in then.  I wrote an article saying that it might be time to buy now  (I had entered JNUG & NUGT and few select Miners). That article is here if you want to read it.      http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/05/31/learning-to-be-patient/

 

  It Seemed that everyone was or wanted to go short- or just hated the metals all together. 

As a quick review, the charts I used went like this MAY 2014- Triangle price projection near $1200, seasonal lows in Jul/AUG

MAY 30 projection 1

 

I had noticed some very interesting things happening with Miners and even the Metals charts themselves, SO I posted this Next chart below as a contrary idea , one that would leave everyone waiting for “Seasonal Summer Lows” behind …

 

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ILLUSION

Its An Illusion

Friday Sept 25    ( Note: As I write, GOLD just got sold off  $1228 to $1218 )

In the above picture, are these horizontal lines parallel or do they slope?   Its an illusion.

When a magician lifts something up with his right hand and holds it right in front of your face  (While his left hand is grasping something taped to his left pant leg) and claps his hand and everything  changes in a puff of smoke…Its an Illusion

And Thursday,  when I looked back at what has happened to $GOLD & $SILVER lately , and then examined a few other things, I thought…. IS THIS REAL OR IS THIS AN ILLUSION??

Notice  $SILVER- Breaking down to new 4 year lows! Everywhere I read,  ” It’s going off a cliff, $10 to $13 Silver soon!”

 

$SILVER

 

Nobody is yelling,   “Its on sale! Lowest Prices in years!”     People used to buy it all the way down, but now there is an element of Fear. THATS GOOD!

And lets look at $GOLD

 

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SHARK

ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK

SEPT 25   I have NOT even mentioned Miners lately.  They did not look ready, they weren’t acting correctly.  Depending on your daily cycle count, Miners may be very deep in their count, due for a bounce.  Some have them only on day 25, deep enough, but   I have them on day 36!  THAT is late. Today , we may have had a “Stop run” on the May lows. I decided to take a position, because at these very oversold levels (Seen on the chart below), we have had some nice rallys – Good %-Gainers.   Its only a LOW RISK ENTRY, because you cut positions if we drop below todays lows. Its high risk, because Miners have been selling off . Its a contrary trade set up.

 

GDX

 

Note the RSI & STOCHASTICS : 

-Then please notice that the MARCH bounce from these oversold lows wasn’t  a buy & hold for very long.

-Also note that the DEC 2013 lows took a while to bottom before rocketing higher.

-May lows rocketed higher.  What will happen here? I cannot say for sure, but it was a decent entry and I wanted to share why I took a position.

 

EDIT: I want to add that I got a BUY SIGNAL known as an RSI(2) on GDX Monday . Over 95%  reliable Buy signal

snapshots

SNAP-SHOTS

TUESDAY SEPT 23, 2014   Just wanted to share just a few quick snapshots of some what I am watching lately.

 

ZNGA – Chart from yesterday, but its the same today. Tight stop below 50sma  (Thx Cheri)

 

znga

 

 More charts ….

 

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decisions

Here Again

Monday Sept 22, 2014   HERE AGAIN…once we look at a few possible  “Set ups”  lining up as possible buy opportunities or we actually take a position, we always have to re-examine our positions.  Why? The Markets change daily and we  just want to  make sure that we are still in a good place.    Did I get stopped out?  If so, I like to see if the set up is broken entirely or is it possibly still setting up, maybe I was a tad early?   At this point I re-read my last report (s)…yes, some things have changed , some became STRONGER, some looking WEAKER. Overall, however, I still get excited looking at the break outs on these LONG BASES!  For the sake of time and sanity – I am just going to mention a few from the past, and try to point out a few more I like. To The Charts!

 

VIMC – Oh how I loved this base! In at $3+ and again at $5 … Posted this weekly a while back

 

VIMC WEEKLY

 

VIMC  just kept improving and I sold some near $6.40, but as it exploded higher with Strong volume , I re-bought  as it was rising above $7.00  near $7.10  (the amount that I re-bought was only 1/2 than what I had sold near $6.40) above $7  . Now what has it done?

 

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CLIMB

Climbing That Wall Of Worry (And Hanging On)

QUICK UPDATE -  The last report(s) are still valid, but I wanted to add a few thoughts.

First – Some work was being done on the website & a few got an email alert  saying a new report was posted.  It was a “Test” and I apologize for the confusion. That alert was not meant to be sent.  If ever in doubt…Do you see the RED chartfreak box at the top left of the website …click it and it will always take you to the home page & most recent post.

Second: my last report discussed the reward of BUYING THE DIP. This was the same day following that report (Yes, we still have FED WED ahead, but so far so good). Good volume on a reversal,so far.

 

QQQ sept 16

 

I am writing and posting this picture, because if you have been following my reports for the last few weeks, you know that I was buying VIMC around $3.75, and then trading it.  I also have been calling for some “GIANTS” to POP UP and with VIMC earnings, I did feel that this one is a candidate. You also know that….

 

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DIPPY

What Has Payed Off Best In A Bull Market?

Tuesday Sept 16 , 2014  There was a time that I HATED pullbacks in the Markets. Many years ago I thought something might be wrong when Markets sold off.  CNBC would tell me that it was because of “THIS” and “THAT” , and there was no end in sight to “THOSE THINGS”.  I worried that the sell offs would gain momentum and people would panic out leaving me with losses. Come to think of it, back then it did kind of work that way, but thats mainly because of WHEN I bought, and DIDNT SELL.  15 years later , and  in this recent  Bull Market, I love the Pull backs.  They have been great buying opportunities, and while the Bull Market can end at any time (and  you’ll need to reassess and change your strategy then) for the past few years,  “BUY THE DIPS” has been the best way to make $$.  If you’ve been watching stocks rip higher and Higher day after day and then jumped in after they’ve been up 5 days in a row – you realize that ‘BUY THE DIPS, SELL THE RIPS’ is a good strategy.

  As a reminder, I posted a chart last SEPT 5th of the SPX, showing what  I watch for.  Here is an Updated one .   Notice  we repeatedly run up, often go sideways, then dip…often to the 50sma or 125 in bigger corrections.   Where are we now ?

 

SPX sept 16

 

There is one thing that may be of concern. The FED is discussing possibly raising rates sooner then later and how will the MKT perceive that?  Notice in the above chart that the SPX has basically gone straight up lately….

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GOT ARUBA.

…Continued Part 2 – REFLECTIONS

…CONTINUED PART 2 –  I just spent 3 hrs writing part 2 and lost it when my laptop shut down & auto installed updates!  Deep inside I actually feel down-hearted & though I’m pretty mild tempered, I am feeling a little of this right now. ARGH!

I have to start over  (  Thankfully all the charts are saved, just the Writing , explaining, & organizing of this report remains). Unfortunately  I have less time, so Its likely going to be a little more hurried.

I simply started by mentioning that in Part 1 of this report and in my past 2 report, all of the strong action displayed by the stocks discussed  (see the report GIANTS AMONG US) happened, not while the NASDAQ, QQQ, SPX, RUT, IWM , etc were rocketing higher, but while they were going sideways. Those stocks have been exploding on Good Earnings Reports.  I also pointed out that SPX, DJIA , RUT, IWM are at all time highs, but the Nasdaq isnt…(YET).  If it is trying to play catch up here…I have to wonder if it’ll just continue on this somewhat parabolic path?

 

QQQ

 

Anyways ,  I wanted to review some more of those LONG BASE SET UPS that are breaking out and also a few other set ups.  

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