Fri

The Friday Illusion Again?

Nov 21, 2014   Freaky Friday  6:00A.M.

Will they sell Metals off?  Will they buy it back?  Will Metals break out higher going into the weekend, when less people are likley to BUY & HOLD ? Its hard to know exactly what we will see, but lately Fridays have been exciting in the Metals markets,  so  I got up at 5 a.m. today to see if the Friday shenanigans that occurred in Gold the past 2 Fridays would return.  So far, it seems likely.   Well, if you’ve read my prior reports, then you know what I am looking for at the end of Friday on the weekly charts, so I will just touch on a few things here and then take a look at a couple of other interesting chart developments elsehwere. 

First- this is the “SNAPSHOT” I woke up to…   whats your first thought?

5 30 a.m.

It looks like another dollar rally coming , and a Gold slam down, but notice this ….

 

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Fed

I TOLD YOU FED MINUTES ARE FUN!

Nov 20,2014  (also known as The Day After )

 Well, Never a dull moment of a Fed Day, huh? Some have written and asked if “Lock out” is out of the way now. I would say no. It may be even more of a Lock Out I cannot imagine that this “SHAKEOUT” was bought by many either. We had a shake out below that critical $1179 area and it again recovered. Did any buy? I know 2 of my readers wrote that he / she bought (knowing in advance that a shake out could happen).  THAT was brave! I imagine that MORE people grabbed DUST, went short , or bailed out. Some wrote and told me that they were advised to add to DUST by other letter writers.   Let me show you how I walk through this roller-coaster ride.  Overnight…how did GOLD react? Charts below.

 

AUDIO LINK   click here, click download/ click “OPEN”  – return to follow charts

GOLD  FOR PERSPECTIVE-  The whole story so far

GOLD NOV 20

Amazing how “Orderly” that chart looks in Hindsight, isnt it? so…

 

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Min

YAY! Its a FED MINUTES DAY!

Nov 19,  Wednesday 

  Well, Fed minutes, thats always fun!  Why?  Whatever you see happen this morning may be undone by the close.  Or subtle moves may become explosive moves, and I mean in either direction, right?  So Today I’m just doing a this report  to point out a couple of things of interest. Likely you noticed that We have been discussing Metals and Miners a lot lately. That is  because I have wanted to walk you through a day by day bottoming process and show you what I look for. It isnt reassuring to just hear someone say “GO LONG” and you blindly jump in only to get knocked back out. This way we have now already discussed important areas to watch and with the fed minutes we are prepared for any volatility that may follow. I also want to point out a couple of other interesting areas , so lets hit a couple of charts. I will start with reminders to prepare us for Fed Minutes.

To hear AUDIO    click here / Then click ‘download’, then click OPEN . when U hear audio – return to follow the charts here

GOLD NOV 7 – Pre mkt I saw a shake out in real time, so  I pointed out an important part of the “Shake Out”  was to recover June 2013 lows of $1179 again on a weekly basis, using this chart in the weekend report.

GOLD WKLY

 

After days of volatility  , we see that…

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SHORTy

PART 2 Fuel To The Fire

Mid day Nov 18

As we watch the day unfold, I am still seeing some Bears add to their shorts here in public blogs.  It’s tough to watch if you think that we have more upside, and I’m not happy about it, just pointing out what that might mean .  They want to add here trying to  make their money back if prices drop. Some are still saying that   “KIng Dollar will crush the Metals” and  “It was a Break Down of Triple Support, now support is broken , so its going to crash.”    As I have outlined here…It had the makings of  a “Shake out” &  Now looks to be a “LOCK OUT”.     When these shorts finally throw in the towel, prices should even climb higher leaving them with bigger losses and then for them, prices are too high to jump into ,  without feeling like they are chasing.  I want to share with you another development…MINERS.

As explained in an earlier report- A  “SHAKE OUT” is when price breaks below support and causes “Shorts” to take or add to existing positions. Prior support SHOULD become resistance, but IF support is recovered – it is viewed as a “shake out”. I pointed that out in GOLD.  Today we see MINERS acting in the same manner. Notice…

 

GDXJ – I was watching for a recovery here too and drew this chart at noon. Since then,  It has now recovered its support level. Price as I write is Currently $29.22 . A close Above $28.82  is Bullish.

 

GDXJ Recovery

 

What about GDX? …

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SHORTy

Fuel To The Fire

Nov 18,2014 

   Just a few thoughts here, not much has changed.  I had one reader ask me to review the QQQ’s , so I will do that and also use the SPY as an example, but first GOLD. The outworking  of GOLD continue to look and act  like a “Shake out”  & then the final “Lock Out” have occurred.   I actually have people writing me saying they are going to short the 20sma and also will short again at the 50sma.  One asked me  “I added shorts today , when will you be?”   IF THIS IS A LOCK OUT move, shorting is extremely costly. We might get pullbacks here and there on a daily chart, but A short cover rally accompanied by buying can cause a somewhat pause-less rally and the mental damage can cause one to just freeze. So historically, Please look at this Weekly chart ….

 AUDIO CLICK HERE  click here / press download then click OPEN and come back to follow charts

Better to  short this , or buy the dips?

 

GDX ICL

 

Next lets cover Gold as I see it this am ( 6a.m.)…

 

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LOCK up

Signs of a Lock Out

Monday Nov 17,2014  

Just a Quick memo today, because I think that “The weekend report said it all”   as far as How I am seeing things and what I am thinking. Now we have to wait and see and look for either follow through or other activity that confirms or negates  the things that I mentioned in the weekend report.  Also I see that the report did raise a couple of questions that I noticed in a few emails. “What do I do” and “Can I go long?”  “Should I hold my DUST & sell on a dip & then Buy a pullback?”   Quick review and then a few ideas.

How I feel about DUST & SHORTS. I believe that because of the strong run up  (On a FRIDAY) we saw a possible Shake out AND a possible “LOCK OUT”. A LOCK OUT  is when they sell prices down and get people to bail out on longs, run the stops, and even encourage heavy shorting, since they break prior “SUPPORT” levels. Those support levels become resistance,right?  Since $1179 was support turned resistance , but offered No Resistance on Friday…it is looking like a possible “LOCK OUT” now.   $1179 becomes support again. That is when Buyers now have a hard time buying- they have been mentally locked out. They even expect a pullback after Fridays straight up move, so they hold “SHORTS” to sell for at least a little less of a loss.   Here is the chart of GOLD FRIDAY - (Click to enlarge)

 

GOLD NOV 17

That run up plowed right through the “Resistance” of $1179 , and…

 

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Wedding

They Look Really Bullish

Nov 15, 2014 Weekend Report

I was driving to a formal event today when suddenly I saw what appeared to be a ‘sign’ on the side of the road, so I pulled over and there we were…3 of us looking pretty bullish ! For my 2 new friends it came naturally, but for me it has been building for over a week.  If you recall my article written pre-mkt last Friday (Nov 7), I felt that I had seen a legitimate “SHAKE OUT” in the overnight action and said that I was buying in the pre-market . I also mentioned that confirmation would likely come this week and I outlined briefly what I would be looking for.   (If you’re new here, you may want to read the articles outlining my expectations. A short one last Friday is here  Scary yet Beautiful    Or   the weekend report Bears get tired too)…

 We will now review whether  conditions have been met to increase the likely-hood of a Bottom being put in place Friday Nov 7 for GOLD, Wednesday for Miners.  ALSO I NEED TO BE CLEAR…A Bottom here would not necessarily mean THE BOTTOM at this point, but certainly weeks of gains.  To the Charts!

AUDIO version  here  click here then click ‘download’ & ‘OPEN’ to play

-Then come back & follow the charts

Last Weeks chart – Broke 1.5 yrs support and MOST called for a cascade sell off . To me, likely a SHAKE OUT.

GOLD WKLY

 

BEARS had MANY reports of a “Break down in Gold & Imminent crash targets” (I know because 5 of my readers emailed me those reports! ) Some were fearful and others concern for my well being…I thank you for that.  HOWEVER-

 

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THINK

What Were We Expecting? What Are We Seeing?

Nov 14 –  Morning Report

  I had a report written by 9:15 A.M. today  showing positive signs in the Gold overnight, which were leading me to believe that the “WEEKLY” charts would end with GOLD putting in another weekly  reversal candle. The action yesterday in Miners was mentioned in yesterdays report and I said that GDX had broken below its recent uptrend line and would need to recover to be a shake out and not a break down. It has.  GDX & GDXJ are both WELL ABOVE their 10sma & Volumes today is strong. So based on all the reports from me for the past week or so- what do you think we are seeing?

 Yesterday there was weakness in the Miners &  I posted an update  report saying that DEC 2013 lows had a momentary flush of the lows and ‘possibly’ we could see the same, but I still was not expecting a PLUNGE lower to $1000 or $800   (YET)  .  I have been saying that I expected that we are at lows and would have a nice rally for at least the next few weeks.   I will now share a couple of the charts that I had for this mornings report, but Gold & Silver have exploded higher and I will tell you what I think we are seeing here and how you can benefit.

At 9:00 A.M. I was going to point out that GOLD held prior support & Reversed ( That was Bullish) (Click to enlarge)

GOLD 4 right now

 

As I was finishing my report at 9:15, it started to break higher  (breaking out?)

GOLD CURRENTLY NOV 14

Then…

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GOLD bar

Nov 13 UPDATE

2:45 P.M. Nov 13.   (I apologize for the late “Alert” , the auto Email alert system apparently was down when I posted this)

 

Many have asked that I occasionally show what I watch during the day  and post here.  I don’t want to watch and report on every little wiggle, but there are interesting things to look at . Especially since this mornings report I showed a possible stab at a lower low still fitting the cycle counts & Elliot wave ,etc …so let me show you quickly what I am watching.  it is more bearish for Gold Miners, but…so far GDX and GDXJ  do remain above the 10sma on a daily chart  (not shown) .  So these are the intra-day wiggles that I look at.  More charts / less words here so I can post quickly .

GOLD looks fine  (so far) …many shake outs , but regains support areas.  (Click to enlarge)

GOLD AGAIN

 

If  “MINERS LEAD”..are they holding up ok?  They remain above the 10sma so far,  BUT…

 

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Core

Did you say a “Core” position?

Nov 13, 2014

 Not a lot to say today- I got about 80 replies to the recent request for input on a better designed website. I tried to reply to each and every one. I THINK I may have accidentally permanently deleted one of them, if you didn’t hear back from me, I apologize- I DID read it before that happened. You can even resend it and I’ll get back to you, but I spent a good deal of time replying and thanking everyone for such positive feedback.  Pat yourselves on the back, what a Kind group of people are reading here!

 AUDIO LINK HERE  click here

Now..A CORE? I had a couple people ask me why I dont discuss my “Core” holdings vs trades. I will when I have some, but until things start trending, I cut the core! Maybe some ENERGY or  COAL stocks are a little more BUY & HOLD  at this time. Some have begun trending.  And  since the COAL lows, earnings were released late OCT- it would seem that any bad news is baked in and upside seems to be steady  (Above the moving averages. Lets take a quick look…

 

BTU - recommended yesterday at 10 A.M.

BTU

1 .5 Hrs later

BTU 2

Also …

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