TURNING FAST

Still Running FAST

SEPT 2, 2014    Many equities were breaking from good bases this summer and some of these equities mentioned in the last report are STILL running fast!   Look at charts of HGSH & DGLY for example. These types of runs leave most behind because you just cant jump into a stock that has run up 100- 500% without risking losing your shirt.   You can set up a watchlist and look to possible buy retracements later  (Patience is required here, but it is important to wait for a lower risk set up). In my last report, I also mentioned that I had various watch lists with similar set ups  to those already running strong, but before they broke out.   It is best to know when they have earnings reports coming out and watch how they respond AFTER the release. One such stock mentioned last week was RALY.  Earnings were due, will it RALLY?  It was at $9.80 & had a bullish pattern that looked like this …

 

RALY

 

Next Chart: Earnings were released on Thursday Aug 28  , and Friday it looked like this as a possible ISLAND BOTTOM…

 

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Small cats

HAVE YOU SEEN THESE CRAZY SMALL CAPS

AUG 25, 2014             Oh, I’m sorry, those are crazy small cats in the picture, but have you seen some of the CRAZY SMALL CAPS?  Rather explosive moves have been occurring  in many small caps like  LEJU, JRJC, HGSH, DGLY, KNDI, MOBI, DANG, after experiencing rather steep sell offs. As mentioned in my last report, I have been very busy this August, so while I did catch a couple of these baby rocket-ships early on due to their “Set ups”   (Leju & JRJC) …I also have been forced to sell way too soon.  JRJC was sold at $8 for example, and They are still running nicely. They have left me behind after I sold them.  The point that I am making here, however, is that certain ‘set ups’ after a steep sell off can indicate a possible explosive move is coming and those were just a few examples.  IF THERE ARE MORE currently setting up that have not exploded upwards yet…there may be opportunity for more Low Risk Entries prior to a nice POP (I cant re-enter the above mentioned unless they pullback).

 

First lets review a few things in various Markets…

 

SPX NOTES

 

When the markets sell off, you hear all kinds of warnings, but it has been buying opportunities as the selling became overdone.

 

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fast turtle

Faster Turtles?

AUG 13, 2014     History and rumor has it that in summer month of AUGUST  the Markets  are as slow as a Turtle  ! Believing this to be true, I signed up to do  some charity work that will take up much of my spare time during this month.  I  figured that during this ‘low volume, Slow summer month”,  when Congress leaves Washington and Fund Managers all go on vacation,  I too could take a break & would keep busy with other pursuits and  post occasionally when things present themselves.  SURPRISE!! We have faster Turtles this Aug.  The Markets seem pretty active, with a correction as July Ended, so lets just look at a few things.

 

IWM ( & RUT) had warning signs of a double top

 

IWM

Lately this has been a buying opportunity , as the “Buy The Dips, Sell The Rips” mantra has proven effective.  What about now?  How do  the Nasdaq and the $SPX  currently look ?

 

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Update

Just A Short Review

AUG 5  12 Eastern time -     I just wanted to quickly review my expectations. Things look normal in the Metals and Miners at first glance, but are they really just Normal? Or are there other things to consider?  I’ll show you what I expect short term, but I am also seeing something else in the bigger picture.   To the charts!

 

GLD  looks like a normal re-trace & Gap fill.

 

GLD AUG 5

 

As mentioned in Yesterdays report – With the descending wedge and oversold conditions, I would expect a break higher soon.

What about Silver?  It looks like its selling off harder than Gold today, so Lets look at a few more charts …

 

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Chalk

The Good News First

August 4 2014 -   Well, after looking at the weekly charts of Metals, Miners and the $USD…I would say that the Good News is that we can expect a Bounce In $Gold & Miners short term,  but does that mean there’s Bad News Too?   To the Charts!

 

The $USD has had a nice run, it is a bit extended now.  

Using both daily cycles timing and Tech Analysis, I think it is due for a rest.

 

$USD  AND GOLD 2You can also see from that chart above in the middle column that a wedge has formed in Gold…so what does this indicate?

 

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LIGHT

MIXED SIGNALS

AUG 1 2014 -  First off , There has been a lot going daily this week in my personal life, my friends son was in a severe accident and a few other things have kept me busy, so I have not been in front of the screen as much as usual this week.   That said,  I haven’t Tweeted & Posted as often as usual so I wanted to  Quickly just throw out some brief Charts & Thoughts  since it got a little CRAZY after the Fed Mtg.

 

SPX - It was DUE for a pullback using cycles and Technical analysis, but you can never tell how much or how fast.  This COULD get serious – but as I mentioned, there were signs that it was coming.  The VIX, $CPCE, Internals , and of course PRICE PATTERNS  showed we were due.  See the daily & weekly below.

 

SPX WEELY – Overbought RSI WEEKLY & it hit the Top of the channel

$SPX weekly

 

The SPX DAILY also showed that it was ready for a pullback (Note the Rising Wedge – MACD , RSI, and Orange arrow) …

 

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Baby bull

Its a Tiny Bit of a Bull here

July 26  Weekend thoughts     Well, after the final day of the week, I would say that the reversal in the Metals Mkts Friday  into the close grew a tiny bit more like a Bull.   A baby bull.  It APPEARS to be a bullish reversal, but there are still some cautionary notes and things to watch for….lets have a look.

 

GOLD -  At this point it looks like it is playing out exactly as I mentioned in my last 3 write ups.  A Bullhorn formed, a run of the stops below $1292, bounced off of the 200sma…a reversal.

 

GOLD July 25 bullhorn

 

Perfect right?  Well…caution remains because there are other factors to consider…

 

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Bounce

This Bounce Bears Watching

July 25 -   As I write pre-Mkt, a bounce is unfolding.  Many people feel that they always need to be “In the trade”. Sometimes during the strugglesome periods and possible turning points, its best to either hedge positions or just step back and watch how it plays out. If you follow my series of posts on this web site, I was BULLISH Metals & Miners at the end of May.  I caught the lows.  I was Bullish through June and into July, but recently things have changed a bit- with a “Shake out”.   Review my posts -  you’ll see that I started warning of weakness,   but still a bullish recovery possible.  Then it went to a baby bear. Then a battle of Bull vs Bear is becoming more evident. Now?  I expect a bounce….but this bounce could just be the Bear playing around or is the Bull going to take over?  QUICK review -To the Charts…

 

July 15-   I pointed out the steep sell off in Gold needed to bounce, was that a Bullhorn forming? -

 

GOLD july 15 bullhorn

GOLD – is this still just a Bullhorn ? Notice Gold bounced off of the 200sma, closed above the 50sma. Now a bounce?

 

GOLD BULLHORN

 

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BULLL BEAR

Pre-Mkt sell off in GOLD – Still just a battle of the Bulls & the Bears

JULY 24 -  Pre mkt    

I spent some time yesterday researching, since we are at a point where some people are ready to throw in the towel in GOLD , others arent.

Some are saying that “GOLD is weak here (And miners) and if this were a 2nd daily cycle…it should have blasted off by now. It has no follow through & is too weak.”   Others even think  (And it could be)  that “Maybe a 2nd DCycle may not have started yet…maybe we are still in an extended 1st DCycle?”  I began to wonder myself too.  Since We have no overhead trend line break, it IS a possibility that we are still in the 1st DCycle , even  if they “Run the stops ” here in GOLD and it dips below $1292. It could recover.  We are selling off pre-mkt,  as mntioned yesterday, there are signs of weakness, however,  I am not THAT concerned yet.   

$GOLDSo Lets look at some charts-

 

$GOLD JULY 24

 

GOLD  – is  selling off in pre mkt , but this chart shows that its not that bad. Its still a normal pullback using Technical Analysis, so we’ll keep our eyes on things.

 

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baby

Just a little Bear(Ish)

July 22, 2013     I didnt want to scare anyone, so I decided to just show a playful little bear to make my next point, instead of a Full Blown Bear.  If you’ve been following my thinking, you know that I expected another Leg higher. Using cycles for timing, it should’ve popped higher or at least should  POP really soon. If not  -  this second leg up may just fail.  So why the little bearishness?  Well, as time goes on and the consolidation continues, we are losing the “strength” that was adding confidence. Notice the following charts…

 

GOLD is weakening & looks actually tired

 

GOLD TIRED

I want to see GOLD get above those 2 moving averages overhead & not struggle so much.

What about the Miners?

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